Nevada in line for a seat

By Lisa Mascaro (contact)

Wednesday, Jan. 3, 2007 | 7:12 a.m.

WASHINGTON - All those Californians moving to Nevada might be good for something. The Silver State is poised to pick up a fourth seat in the U.S. House, while the Golden State's delegation may fail to grow for the first time since statehood, according to new census projections.

Nevada's population boom puts it well on its way to securing the additional seat when Congress is reapportioned after the 2010 Census. Some projections even suggest the state could grow enough to pick up a fifth seat by then.

The state's Democratic and Republican strategists expect a new seat to be a political battleground, much the way the 3rd Congressional District now held by Republican Rep. Jon Porter was politically split between Ds and Rs when it was created after the 2000 Census.

"For Nevada, it's a huge deal," said Clark Benson, a consultant at Polidata, a Washington demographic and political research firm that compiled the projections. "Look at neighboring Utah - (officials) sued for not getting their fourth seat," Benson said. "Here's another chance to get another voice on the floor of the House."

Nevada's rise reflects the nation's continued migration away from old population powerhouses in the East and Midwest to the emerging political centers of the South and West.

In one telling example, Florida is poised to tie New York with the nation's third largest delegation to the House.

Utah, which lost its chance for a new seat by fewer than 900 people in 2000, is in line to gain one by 2010.

Just a couple of states defy the southern and western trend: California, with the nation's largest delegation of 53 House members, is not growing enough to add another seat. And Hurricane Katrina could cost Louisiana one of its House seats after 200,000 evacuees fled following the storm.

Nevada pollsters have been expecting a fourth House seat, given the Southern Nevada building boom. Yet how that district will be drawn geographically will be the political sport of coming years. Any new district would likely take a portion of population-rich Clark County, which the state demographer says accounts for 81 percent of Nevada's growth since 2000.

But whether that district goes from, say, Pahrump to Mesquite, as one Democratic consultant envisioned it, or is drawn along north-south lines paralleling the existing rural 2nd District, as one Republican suggested, remains for state lawmakers and the governor to debate.

"It all will be in play, and it's all open for negotiation," Democratic consultant Gary Gray said.

Both sides agree the new seat would likely become a political tossup given the state's narrowly split party registration and efforts by current members of Congress to secure their jobs. Even so, the new seat has to come from somewhere, which means those districts now considered a lock by either party would likely narrow.

Getting to a fifth seat is a bit of a long shot, according to Kimball Brace, president of Washington-based Election Data Services, which also compiled data.

The state, which grew by 83,000 residents last year, would need half a million more by 2010.