Friday, Feb. 23, 2007 | 7:06 a.m.
In a small building in a small town that could have been anyplace in Iowa or New Hampshire, Nevada confirmed its ascendance in the Democratic presidential nominating process this week.
Eight White House hopefuls with varying degrees of viability - ranging from front-runner status to snowball's chance - packed into a community center in the hamlet of Carson City to hawk their wares not just to the locals and AFSCME delegates, but also to the world, thanks to ABC, C-SPAN and a flock of national media types.
The state's Democratic elite, led by Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, answered some critical questions Wednesday as there were few glitches and no glaring embarrassments. But it is just under 11 months until the scheduled Jan. 19 caucus and nearly two years until the actual presidential election, and many questions remain as Reid & Co. bask in the afterglow of the Carson confab. To wit:
Reid and his people already have had to deal with silly brush fires - the insinuation that John Edwards has the inside track because of his organized labor ties and more recently a blogosphere uproar over Fox News airing one of the debates. The faithful can get into a serious snit over almost anything, so, as usual, the biggest impediments to the Democrats winning the presidency are Democrats.
This is problematic for Harry Reid with his colleagues - some of them surely will think this is some sort of transparent Kabuki. I don't think it is - Reid the Younger has ignored Dad's advice in the past, notably when Reid the Elder told him not to seek his current position because the County Commission is a political boneyard. (Quick, name the last commissioner who went anywhere significant besides prison.)
But the interesting question is what the Senate majority leader does now. After his son ignored his counsel and ran for the County Commission, Dad made sure his son won. Will he now do all he can to ensure his son looks prescient with his endorsement of Clinton?
Not only do the GOP whiners help energize the opposition's base even more, but they also emphasize how silly the Republicans are for not doing the same.
That's about to change. Some Republicans have awakened to the obvious long-term organizational advantages the Democrats will obtain by moving up the caucus, registering more voters and attracting the presidential hopefuls. A conference call next week is scheduled among prominent GOP officials to discuss moving the balloting from late April to much earlier to compete with the Democrats and blunt their advantage. My guess is it will happen.
But the numbers and demographics are inexorable. The Democrats simply can't erase rural Nevada, as much as they would like. And history tells us something: No Democratic presidential contender has won here since Lyndon Johnson more than four decades ago, with the exception of Bill Clinton. And Clinton only won Nevada because Ross Perot siphoned enough votes from GOP nominees in 1992 and 1996.
The locals can crow about having four of six constitutional offices, but one of the main reasons they don't hold the most important one is that Jim Gibbons held his extra-Clark County base. That voting pattern looked eerily familiar to the totals of George W. Bush and will be repeated in 2008, unless the Democrats come up with a strategy that now seems elusive.
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