The great state debate

Sun, Feb 4, 2007 (7:46 a.m.)

New Hampshire Democrats are lousy at picking good candidates in their precious first-in-the-nation primary. Aside from John F. Kennedy and incumbents, the only Democrat to win the New Hampshire primary and go on to the White House was Jimmy Carter, whose single term was marked by a hostage crisis, stagflation and his stinginess with the White House thermostat.

And yet, every four years, as sure as the lighting of the Olympic torch and the arrival of another dreaded Eagles tour, New Hampshire's political class plants itself on the ground and begins its ritual kicking and screaming.

We're first in the nation!

The media and the major candidates enable this behavior with their endless photo-ops in front of New Hampshire's country inns and pumpkin farms. But now some adults, as in leaders of the Democratic Party and activists, are saying enough is enough. New Hampshire will always play in the game, but it can't always have the ball.

Time to let other states play a bigger role. So Nevada's caucus is now scheduled for three days before the New Hampshire voting.

"That frackin' 'tradition' is a naked power grab at the expense of the rest of the country," wrote Markos Moulitsas of the giant liberal blog DailyKos. "It's one whose days are numbered, no matter how hard NH and Iowa struggle to hang on. And the more unreasonable they are (like in this case), the quicker the day their monopoly ends."

But New Hampshire's self-image is lashed to its place on the primary calendar. The state won't go down without a fight. It has a law that commands the secretary of state to move the New Hampshire primary up to ensure that it comes before any "similar contest."

The rumblings from New England indicate he'll do just that.

So, which state should go first? On the next page, dear reader, is a debate.

Nevada's population is diverse

New Hampshire is as white as its mountains, as white as its copious snowfall. When New Hampshire citizens think diversity, they think French-Canadians. The salsa in New Hampshire tastes like ketchup.

Well, America is changing, and Nevada is a microcosm of that change.

The state is nearly 24 percent Hispanic, 7 percent black and nearly 6 percent Asian. New Hampshire is 96 percent white.

"Those voices are an integral part of the Democratic Party," said Jean Hessburg, former director of the Iowa Democratic Party who was tapped by Nevada Democrats to run the caucuses here. Political scientists agree that winning over Hispanics, who now make up 15 percent of the nation's population, could be the key to building a long-term majority as America becomes increasingly diverse.

Dante Scala, associate professor of political science at St. Anselm College and a fellow at the New Hampshire Institute of Politics who has written extensively about the New Hampshire primary, concedes the state isn't known for its diversity, but argues it is home to an important constituency group: suburban Democrats, or Volvo Democrats, as he calls them.

Volvo Democrats. They'll deliver the White House.

Nevada: Everyone vacations here. New Hampshire: Object of ridicule.

New Hampshire is the object of scorn in New England. There are Web sites, entire Mike Barnicle columns, devoted to mocking New Hampshire residents as rednecks and rubes.

To wit: You know you're from New Hampshire if you think the major food groups are venison, beer, fish and berries; if your neighbor throws a party to celebrate his new machine shed; if you see people wearing hunting clothes at a social event.

It takes 30 buckets of sap to make a bucket of boring.

Enough already about Canadian timber tariffs and the maple syrup market.

Every four years, between New Hampshire and Iowa, the country is subjected to the same parochial issues that are irrelevant to huge swaths of the country.

The Nevada caucus, on the other hand, will force candidates to talk about issues of wide-ranging impact for a region of the country that has long been neglected in presidential politics.

The issues that matter in Nevada are important everywhere west of the Rocky Mountains: public lands and how they're used, water or the frightening dearth of it, immigration and growth management.

Need to hide? Go to New Hampshire. Want to resurrect your career? Vegas it is.

When J.D. Salinger couldn't handle the pressure or notoriety of writing creepy stories about children and withdrew from public life, where did he go? New Hampshire.

When the big stars need a little rejuvenation, where do they come? Vegas. Celine Dion, Elton John, the artist formerly known as Prince, and now Michael Jackson.

Who's famous in New Hampshire? News media types with comb-overs who show up every four years.

Nevada is space age. New Hampshire is the trolley age.

The population is moving south and west and has been for decades. The Northeast is slowly losing congressional seats, while Nevada and other Western states are gaining them.

Both parties believe the Intermountain West will be a battleground in 2008 and beyond. Democrats here are excited by recent gains and want to push ahead. The early caucus in Nevada will shower the state's Democrats with money, organization, media attention and volunteers. That could turn Nevada blue in November 2008.

Nevada: Fun and exciting. New Hampshire: Boring.

Most of what there is to do in New Hampshire involves snow. Although there's also something called "leaf-peeping." Sounds dirty and fun, but it's not. This involves looking at foliage. Is there a similar term for watching paint dry?

Nevada has 24-hour liquor stores, slot machines in grocery stores, brothels, buffets, shows and awesome people-watching.

New Hampshire, a fair shake. Nevada, a stacked deck.

In Nevada, juice is king. Why should the election system be any different, especially with all that union muscle and union involvement in organizing the caucus? As for plain, good old-fashioned judgment, Las Vegas elected a former mob attorney its mayor - twice.

New Hampshire is the last bastion of grass-roots politics in America, a place where White House hopefuls - regardless of the size of their campaign coffers - must look voters in the eye, shake hands and answer tough questions on a one-to-one basis. Everybody gets a fair shake.

New Hampshire is a picture postcard. Have you seen Pioche, Nev.?

When the U.S. government wanted to test the atomic bomb, there's a reason it picked Nevada.

The state's two major population centers - Las Vegas and Reno - are nearly 450 miles apart, with little but sagebrush and brothels in between.

As for beauty, forget Lake Tahoe. New Hampshire has its majestic White Mountains, picture-perfect covered bridges and cozy summer cottages. It's easier - and far more pleasant - to travel this small New England state. It's less than an eighth the size of Nevada, with half the Silver State's population - and not as many losers.

New Hampshire inspires art. Nevada inspires ...?

The Granite State's vast network of private prep schools and colleges, including Dartmouth, has inspired great books such as "A Separate Peace" and "The World According to Garp." The president even lived here - at least on television's "The West Wing."

Nevada has inspired a great variety of films, ranging from "Casino" to "Leaving Las Vegas" to "Honeymoon in Vegas." And let's not forget the hit television show "Las Vegas." There's always the Liberace Museum.

New Hampshire votes in elections. Nevada puts odds on them.

Nevada is not known for its activist community. Silver Staters don't vote in large numbers, although they can go to a sports book to check out the odds on the outcome of the state caucus.

Interest in the Democratic caucus hit an all-time high in 2004 when about 9,000 voters, or less than 3 percent of registered Democrats, participated statewide. By comparison, nearly one-third of New Hampshire's registered voters turned out for the 2004 primary - and a far greater percentage of people there register to vote.

New Hampshire voters attend countless town hall meetings and other small gatherings throughout the year to press candidates on issues. As Andrew Smith, professor of political science at the University of New Hampshire, put it: "We're the nation's proctologists when it comes to presidential campaigns."

New Hampshire has colonial history. Nevada thrives as a modern den of sin.

Nevada entered statehood in 1864, mostly to ensure the reelection of President Abraham Lincoln. The state eventually built an economy based on things that were illegal elsewhere: quickie marriages, easy divorces, casino gambling and rural prostitution.

New Hampshire was one of the original 13 colonies. It was the first state to ratify its own state constitution. Its motto is "Live Free or Die." The plurality of its voters, or 44 percent, are registered independent, and, because they can participate in partisan primaries, they regularly swing elections, for better or worse. The state has been picking presidential candidates in its primary since 1952 and that rich history has laid the groundwork for a healthy primary.

So, in conclusion, is it right to shake up the presidential primary calendar?

"You could argue that historically, we haven't had much success getting candidates through the process who actually win," said Hessburg, the Nevada caucus director. "That's part of why we're adjusting the process now."

Others want to scrap the entire thing and start over.

Larry Sabato, director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia, outlines a process under which an election-year lottery would determine a schedule of regional primaries that would take place from April to July.

"Why does it always have to be Iowa and New Hampshire?" Sabato said. "Why shouldn't all of the states have an opportunity?"