A wild ride for Ensign, getting wilder

Monday, Dec. 31, 2007 | 1:31 a.m.

WASHINGTON - It should have been a good news cycle for the National Republican Senatorial Committee and its chairman, Nevada's Sen. John Ensign.

The committee struggled all year to lay the groundwork for electing Republicans to the Senate in 2008. Fundraising was way down. Veteran senators who would be shoo-ins for reelection shocked Washington by announcing their retirements. Recruitment of challengers to Democratic senators was going slowly.

But on a Monday in the dog days of August, Louisiana state Treasurer John Kennedy announced he was switching political parties, from Democrat to Republican - becoming a potentially strong challenger to Louisiana's Democratic Sen. Mary Landrieu, the Democrats' most vulnerable senator heading into 2008.

Ensign and his staff, which includes his longtime campaign strategist Mike Slanker, could have seized the spotlight and enjoyed the good news.

But that same day the story broke about Idaho Republican Sen. Larry Craig's arrest in an airport restroom for allegedly soliciting sex from an undercover officer in the next stall. Craig's "wide stance" defense would dominate the headlines for weeks to come.

Whatever bounce Ensign could have received from Louisiana became overshadowed by the stain of another Republican scandal in a year when the party was trying to overcome the reputation for corruption that partly fueled voters' desire for a change in 2006.

Against that backdrop, Ensign took the two-year job in late 2006 as chairman of the election committee, a move widely seen as a step up in leadership. Indeed, his profile has been on the rise all year in Washington, even if the news for Republicans has not.

Republicans are struggling to redefine their identity and regain their footing after losing control of Congress for the first time in 12 years. With the Senate's balance of power hanging by a one-seat majority, Ensign's job next fall is to prevent that gap from widening and - in a perfect world - have Republicans regain the majority.

No one expects Ensign to succeed at the latter. Next fall 23 Republican Senate seats must be defended, compared with just 12 for the Democrats. Voters tell pollsters they prefer Democrats to Republicans heading into 2008.

But Ensign will be judged on his performance - how many seats he loses and whether he mounted a smart and aggressive enough campaign for his caucus. Doing well in this job could push him up the ranks of Republican Party leadership - past chairmen have included Sen. Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, now the party's leader in the Senate.

Conversely, a bad performance could derail his advancement, leaving him pegged as the guy who let the Republican margin slide further, much the way Sen. Elizabeth Dole of North Carolina was criticized after she held the job during the previous election cycle, when Republicans lost six seats and the majority.

"It's always dicey," a Democratic strategist said. "If you lose a bunch of seats, it's something that stays with you."

By many measures, the committee under Ensign's leadership is off to a rocky start. His quest to raise $120 million for the 2008 election, to match what the Democrats amassed last year, has fallen short. Ensign has raised $26 million and spent all but $9 million. The Democrats have more than twice as much cash on hand.

Ensign has been unable to prevent retirements as longtime Republican senators who were likely to have easily defended their seats bow out of Washington. Republicans Chuck Hagel of Nebraska, John Warner of Virginia and Trent Lott of Mississippi are among those whose retirements took the Hill by surprise.

Ensign gets high marks for updating the committee with the latest technology, including a blog and a video studio candidates can use to make ads. But Ensign closes out the year without a robust roster of challengers to the Democratic senators up for reelection.

Jennifer Duffy, who analyzes Senate races for The Cook Political Report, says she has been grading Ensign on a curve this year because of the difficult environment Republicans in the Senate face.

So long as he loses no more than three Republican seats next fall, she said, the outcome will be considered "something of a victory." A loss of five or six seats, others say, could court trouble. Democrats believe four seats are within their grasp.

Duffy, for one, doesn't agree that Ensign's prospects for advancement are on the line. "In the end, I don't think the number of seats they win or not will impact Ensign personally."

Ensign has always had a noticeable presence in Washington. Elected with the 1994 Republican revolution, he swept into office on a wave of conservative ideology that dominated the election cycle then much as the Democrats' call for change did in 2006.

His good looks and stylishly rich dress set him apart in a town that lacks both. He made a top-50 "most beautiful" people in Washington list in 2006. (Ensign did not make himself available for an interview for this story.)

During his time in the Senate he has distinguished himself with aggressive legislation that represents the party's conservative flank on national issues, from limiting benefits for illegal immigrants to ensuring the Bush tax cuts for corporate America are preserved.

"We have had an opportunity to shape legislation over the past year," he said in a statement. "When it came to several important issues, we were able to improve legislation."

This year, his leadership position pushed him further onto the national stage. During the Craig scandal, in particular, he made a name for himself as the party's enforcer. When Craig decided to finish out his term rather than quickly resign as first promised, Ensign expressed the party's displeasure.

"It's embarrassing for the Senate, it's embarrassing for his party," Ensign told the Associated Press.

Ensign's stance during the Craig affair "was very aggressive," Duffy said. "As a party that felt like it had kind of shaken off the whole corruption and scandal labels Democrats had tagged them with, they proved pretty willing to throw their own over the side."

Months later, as Craig continued on in the Senate, he would tell the Sun that he and Ensign had come to an understanding. "John and I spent a great many hours visiting about it, and I think we've come to some common ground," Craig said.

"When you play a role as leader you also have a human side of you that you can't forget, and John, to his credit, hasn't," Craig continued. "John and I were friends, and we are friends today ... We're both Christians and that in itself became a common ground."

Ensign is increasingly seen at McConnell's side at Senate news conferences, or making the talk show circuit to discuss the day's news or the outlook for Republicans in 2008.

Fellow Republican Sen. Norm Coleman of Minnesota, who is among those fighting to hold on to his seat in 2008 in a likely challenge from comedian Al Franken, said Ensign this year has "earned a lot of respect."

"He's been aggressive, outgoing - he's a good face for the NRSC," Coleman said.

The year started with musings about whether Ensign could do his job and still maintain his nonaggression pact with Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid - the fellow Nevadan he is trying to knock back to the minority.

In many ways, though, the year has shown that Ensign can do his job without turning on Reid at all. An ad against Landrieu that Ensign's committee posted online, for example, uses Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton as the nemesis.

Money, however, remains a crucial element that will partly determine Ensign's success, because it will dictate his committee's ability to run ads to help Republicans or counter Democratic attacks during campaigns.

In a year-end video message posted online, Ensign recaps the year on an upbeat note.

"2007 has been an exceptionally good year for the NRSC," he said, sitting beside a Christmas tree. "We faced many challenges and we've celebrated many successes. We've recruited strong candidates and prepare to say goodbye to some of our good friends."

He adds, "I'm sure you will join me in looking forward to many more successes in the new year."

McConnell, himself up for reelection, remains confident the committee will have enough money heading into 2008 despite the fundraising lag.

But even the Republican boss conceded to reporters at the end of the year the difficulty ahead: "The chances of you all calling me majority leader in 2008 are pretty slim."