ODDS ‘N’ ENDS Jeff Haney on Kansas’ advantage over Virginia Tech in the Orange Bowl and why Ohio State’s a good bet in the top game

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Friday, Dec. 28, 2007 | midnight

In his analysis of Thursday's Orange Bowl matchup between Kansas and Virginia Tech, Las Vegas sports handicapper Joe D'Amico gives an edge to the Jayhawks -- emotionally as well as fundamentally.

First, the intangibles: Kansas lost to rival Missouri in its final regular-season game, but ended up beating out the Tigers for a Bowl Championship Series berth. The Jayhawks figure to be motivated to prove they deserve their billing ahead of Missouri, which lost twice to Oklahoma this season and settled for a Cotton Bowl appearance.

Kansas also drew criticism for a weak regular-season schedule, despite finishing 11-1 straight up and 10-1 against the point spread -- the best performance in college football against the betting number.

It's the fundamental angles, though, that make Kansas one of D'Amico's two best bets on the college bowl slate. The Jayhawks are a 3 1/2-point underdog against Virginia Tech in Miami (5 p.m. Thursday, Fox, Cox cable Channel 5).

At first glance, the Orange Bowl looks like a clash of offense and defense. Kansas scored an average of 44.3 points a game, second behind Hawaii in the NCAA. Tech (11-2 straight up, 7-5 against the spread), traditionally a defense-oriented unit under coach Frank Beamer, allowed 15.5 points a game, second behind Ohio State.

Yet Kansas also brings the No. 5-ranked defense into the game, allowing an average of 16 points, arguably against a softer lineup of opponents.

Kansas' quarterback, Todd Reesing, who passed for a school-record 32 touchdowns, and its rushing attack, led by Brandon McAnderson and Jake Sharp (a combined 1,838 yards and 23 touchdowns), should give Tech as much as it can handle, D'Amico said.

“Virginia Tech has a dual quarterback thing going (Sean Glennon and Tyrod Taylor), and I give Kansas a big advantage there,” D'Amico said. “Because of Virginia Tech's defense, it will be a tough game, and they'll keep it close. In a game like that, give me the 3 and the hook (half-point).”

D'Amico also likes the underdog in the BCS championship game (5 p.m. Jan. 7, Fox), recommending a play on Ohio State plus 4 1/2 points against LSU in New Orleans.

The Buckeyes (11-1 straight up, 7-4 against the spread) face another Southeastern Conference team after losing to Florida 41-14 as a 7-point favorite in last year's title game.

LSU (11-2 straight up, 5-7-1 against the spread) scored an average of 38.7 points a game behind a two-quarterback system featuring Matt Flynn (2,233 yards, 17 touchdowns) and Ryan Perrilloux (694 yards, eight touchdowns). They'll face a top-ranked Ohio State defense (10.7 points a game) that held seven opponents to single digits in scoring.

“LSU is very quick,” D'Amico said. “They remind me a little bit of last year's Florida team. But that two-quarterback offense will find it hard to get into a rhythm. That will work against them, and Ohio State will be rested, healthy and hungry.”

D'Amico (online at allamericansports.info) has been contributing football picks to the Sun periodically this season, compiling a record of 14-9 (61 percent) against the point spread.

Contest final

Las Vegas native Nick Bogdanovich faces Doc Moseman of Sauk City, Wis., in today's championship match in the Leroy's sports books “Money Talks” football handicapping invitational.

The final, with the contest's winner-take-all $160,000 prize at stake, takes place from 7 to 9 p.m. at the Riviera (KSFN 1140-AM).

Bogdanovich, a former sports book director at several Las Vegas casinos who recently accepted a similar position with Reno-based Club Cal Neva, has compiled a record of 14-12-2 against the point spread in the single-elimination tournament. He advanced past Stephen Nover, Wayne Peters, Marc Lawrence and Jorge Gonzalez.

Moseman, operator of a sports handicapping service for 35 years, is 22-13 against the spread including a tiebreaker week. He beat Jeff Whitelaw, Bill Edler, Adam Meyer and Paul Sonner.

Each of the 32 entrants put up $5,000 to compete, making the Leroy's event the largest contest of its kind in Nevada.

Jeff Haney can be reached at 259-4041 or at haney@lasvegassun.com.