Housing causes worry as state’s growth slips

Friday, Dec. 28, 2007 | 7:19 a.m.

In census data released Thursday, Nevada regained its throne as the state with the highest growth rate. But beneath those numbers is something a little troubling for employers here who already are scratching their heads as they look to add more than 100,000 jobs in the next few years: People are moving around less.

That, according to economists, is in part because the national housing market has made it tough for homeowners to sell their homes and move somewhere new - such as, say, to Las Vegas.

"Nationally, more people are locked into their houses now, and that makes them less mobile, so it's more difficult to find quality employees," said local real estate analyst Jeremy Aguero of Applied Analysis.

According to the census data, Nevada grew by 73,000 people from July 2006 to July 2007, a growth rate of 2.9 percent. Last year, the state grew by more than 83,000 people, a growth rate of 3.5 percent. In Las Vegas, what was for years a 6,000 people-per-month immigration dropped this year to closer to 5,000 people per month, according to estimates by UNLV's Center for Business and Economic Research.

Demographers expect a heavy influx into the state in the next few years as new, massive strip projects such as CityCenter and the Palazzo are expected to create 45,000 new hotel rooms and more than 100,000 new jobs. But getting there is going to take some heavy persuading, recruiters say.

"We've had some candidates from out of state that have only been in their house for one year, and they're going to be upside down because of the market," said Marc Weiswasser, senior vice president of the executive recruiting company CasinoRecruiter.com. "They have to accept a new opportunity knowing that financially it may not be in their best interest initially, but down the road they'll have a better job, have more of a chance for advancement."

Recruiters and employers say the growth slowdown has meant an adjustment in recruiting tactics. MGM Mirage, for example, has made a big push to advertise on college campuses, where new graduates are less likely to own homes, said spokesman Alan Feldman.

Tom Haynie, chief financial officer of Manpower, said his company is helping employers draw up new recruiting plans that include finding jobs for spouses, offering better benefits packages and making a bigger and more costly effort to directly recruit from out of state rather than assuming a bunch of new Las Vegas residents will show up at the door.

"In the past, with so many people moving in here, there's been low-hanging fruit, but we tell employers that in the future they're going to have to look outside and help with moving expenses," said Haynie, whose company focuses on entry-level and temporary employees.

In the past, employers and recruiters say, people have chosen to move to Las Vegas in part because the housing market was more attractive than the national market. But that has changed, according to analysis by Keith Schwer of UNLV's Center for Business and Economic Research. Even though housing prices fell about 10 percent in 2007, the percentage of people who can afford to buy a home in Las Vegas is still below 20 percent, down from more than 60 percent in 2003.

It's a bit of a conundrum: On the one hand, employers here would cheer a drop in home prices in Las Vegas because it would make it more enticing for employees to move here. On the other hand, the national trend that has created lower prices here also means it's tough for people to pick up and move to Las Vegas, and that becomes a problem for employers looking for new hires.

"So many of our employees will start their careers as nonhomeowners, so the ability to afford a home here is the thing we would most like to happen," Feldman said. "The market correction isn't all bad."