In Nevada, Paul sees his chance to strike

By Michael Mishak (contact)

Thursday, Dec. 13, 2007 | 7:23 a.m.

Although the crowd of top Republican presidential aspirants has been courting voters in other states, Ron Paul sees an opportunity to strike and win in Nevada - and throw some confusion into the GOP mix.

Paul, a 10-term Texas congressman who ran for president and lost on the Libertarian ticket in 1988, is not only spending as much time here as former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, the only other Republican who has campaigned here in earnest, but he's drawing larger crowds.

Registering in the single digits in national and state polls, Paul hopes to strike a chord with Nevada's libertarian-leaning Republicans in the state's Jan. 19 caucus. Toward that end, he's running radio ads that emphasize his opposition to both the Yucca Mountain project and the taxation of tips.

Paul is set to campaign in Southern Nevada today.

He has the state to himself. Republicans have visited Las Vegas on occasion to raise money, but are largely focused on South Carolina, whose GOP primary is scheduled to coincide with the Nevada caucus. Unlike the Silver State's contest, the South Carolina primary has been a decisive contest for Republicans since 1980.

"We see Nevada as a real opportunity and there's a good chance we can even win," Paul said. "I don't think it's an accident Nevadans appreciate the views I hold. They're free-spirited, they don't like taxation and they like to be left alone. People in Nevada are more oriented toward self-reliance."

And Paul sees Nevada for something else: a chance to score headlines Jan. 19 while the national media are in town covering the state's Democratic caucus, should he pull out a surprise victory. A Paul win here would muddle the party's already chaotic nominee-selection process.

Paul describes himself as a strict constitutionalist, but his views can be traced to the late Barry Goldwater, the 1964 Republican nominee for president and the father of the modern conservative movement. Indeed, Paul sees the campaign less as a run for the White House than as an attempt to steer his party back to its Goldwater roots and away from neoconservatism and what some see as a big-government strain in President Bush's leadership.

One indicator of Paul's popularity came in October when he won the straw poll at a gathering of Western conservatives in Sparks - without ever showing up. Romney attended to fete the crowd.

Then last month a Paul speech at UNLV attracted more than 1,000 people - a crowd about five times the size of the one Romney attracted to a campaign appearance in Henderson that month and significantly larger than some of the audiences at events featuring the leading Democratic presidential candidates, who have been building organizations and campaigning in Nevada all year.

Paul's gospel - focused on limited government and opposition to the Iraq war - has attracted a band of passionate and Web-savvy supporters, who captured national headlines last month when their one-day online "money bomb" effort brought in $4.2 million, breaking political fundraising records. Another effort is planned for Sunday, set to coincide with the anniversary of the Boston Tea Party.

In Las Vegas, supporters will march through the Fremont Street Experience and stage a mock tea party in front of the IRS building.

"Republicans, in many ways, have lost their way," Paul said. "People are disgusted, and a lot of them have dropped out. ... We've gotten ourselves into a mess, and unless we return to our roots we're going to be in a lot of trouble."

Paul has always been a thorn in the side of the Republican Party. He ran for Congress in 1974, as he puts it, "to get a few things off my chest," namely his outrage at President Nixon for abandoning the gold standard and imposing temporary wage and price controls. He won, but left Washington a decade later after losing in the Republican primary for a U.S. Senate seat in Texas. There, Paul, an obstetrician, returned to his medical practice.

But the lure of 1994's so-called Republican revolution proved too strong to resist. He ran again for Congress and won, without the support of party leaders.

Now, as a presidential candidate, he is criticizing the Bush administration's fiscal irresponsibility and decrying the influence of neoconservatives on the country's foreign policy, particularly in the case of Iraq. He supports an immediate withdrawal, a position that has consistently drawn boos from Republican voters at debates.

Like Republicans nationally, GOP voters in the traditional early voting states overwhelmingly favor keeping U.S. troops in Iraq until the situation there is stabilized.

If Paul loses he will not support the eventual Republican nominee, he says, citing the leading candidates' support for continuing the Iraq war and what he considers their lack of fiscal restraint.

"The supporters I have wouldn't be able to understand" an endorsement, he said. "I would have difficulty supporting any of the candidates."

And it is Paul's supporters who have some prominent Republicans concerned.

Conservative strategists worry a Paul third-party candidacy could shave precious points off the Republican base. Ross Perot's third-party candidacy in 1992 and 1996 helped Bill Clinton win Nevada, which will again be a battleground state in November.

Paul did not rule out a third-party candidacy but said such a move was unlikely given the logistic hurdles in getting on state ballots.

For now, Paul is focused on Nevada.

"We're satisfied enough to be encouraged, but not enough to be a shoo-in," Paul said. "We still have some work to do in these last few weeks."