Las Vegas Sun

March 28, 2024

Odds ’n’ ends Jeff Haney on ‘sleepers’ South Florida and Vanderbilt and why bettors should take a look at these teams early in the season

The phrase “everyone thinks this football team is underrated” might sound like a paradox, a Yogi-ism or the punch line to some Zen koan.

In the realm of sports betting, however, it can make perfect sense.

It's possible for a team to cover the point spread in its games more often than not while flying under the radar of public perception. Savvy bettors -- or anyone else paying attention -- can make money by backing such teams at the windows.

The trick is to identify them before the betting marketplace catches on and that point-spread value disappears.

Two teams that could fit the description this college football season, according to handicappers at this week's football betting symposium at Red Rock Resort, are South Florida and Vanderbilt.

The Bulls of the Big East and the Commodores of the Southeastern Conference earned the most mentions in a discussion of college football “sleepers” at the two-day seminar sponsored by Vegas Insider.

Las Vegas handicapper Jorge Gonzalez likes South Florida head coach Jim Leavitt's leadership and thinks Leavitt could achieve his goal of contending for the conference title and making a BCS bowl game.

“You never hear (Leavitt's) name mentioned, and he has done a great job,” said Gonzalez, who projects nine to 10 wins for the Bulls on their 12-game schedule.

Handicapper James Manos also likes South Florida as a sleeper and figures sophomore quarterback Matt Grothe & Co. will capitalize on the opportunity to play tough games against West Virginia and Louisville at home.

Manos predicted South Florida would beat at least one of those teams, and that the other leading Big East contenders would beat up on each other, leaving everyone in the conference with at least one loss and possibly sinking the Big East's hopes of placing a representative in the national title game.

No one expects Vanderbilt -- a 100-1 shot to win the SEC title according to Las Vegas Hilton odds -- to challenge for a national title, but several handicappers see the Commodores reaching a bowl game for the first time in 25 years.

Manos expects a breakout year from quarterback Chris Nickson and figures Vanderbilt will be aided by playing eight of its 12 games at home.

Bruce Marshall of the Gold Sheet gave high marks to coach Bobby Johnson and considers wide receiver Earl Bennett perhaps the best all-around player in the nation.

“They won't be outclassed most weeks,” Marshall said. “They might be 4-0 after four weeks.”

To go undefeated in their first four games, the Commodores would have to upend Alabama in Week 2, a game Marshall classified as an “upset special” for Vanderbilt.

Las Vegas handicapper Andy Iskoe's choice for an underrated college football team also came from the SEC, but Iskoe picked the Georgia Bulldogs to emerge as a moneymaker against the spread. Georgia, 6-1 to win the SEC according to Hilton odds, has a higher profile than Vanderbilt but will still be undervalued by the betting marketplace, Iskoe said.

“They're overshadowed by Florida, Tennessee and now South Carolina, but they have won 80 percent of their games in the past six years,” said Iskoe, who thinks a likely outcome for Georgia is a trip to the SEC championship game, a loss to LSU and a solid bowl bid.

At odds of 35-1 to 50-1 in Las Vegas sports books, Iskoe considers Georgia a “legitimate long shot” in the national championship picture.

Handicapper Marc Lawrence said he bet Louisville, Miami (Fla.) and UCLA as long shots “for value” in the national championship future book, but believes the most likely matchup in the Jan. 8 title game is LSU against Michigan.

LSU has the best defensive player in the nation in Glenn Dorsey, Lawrence said, and Michigan could have three first-round picks in quarterback Chad Henne, running back Mike Hart and wide receiver Mario Manningham.

The Wolverines play Ohio State at home this year in their regular-season finale. “And big payback is in order,” Lawrence said, after Michigan's close loss to the Buckeyes last year.

LSU is about an 8-1 shot to win the national title in Las Vegas future books, with Michigan listed at 6-1 to 8-1. Lawrence was one of the few handicappers to pick against a title-game appearance by heavy favorite USC, a 2-1 choice to win the national championship.

No one suggested a price so short offered any value for bettors, but the handicappers acknowledged a loaded USC team is the clear favorite for good reason.

Handicapper Lee Sterling recommended a bet on USC in its season opener today, a game in which the Trojans are a monster favorite of 46 1/2 points. It's unusual to see a handicapper release a play on such a huge favorite, as taking a pass on the game or playing the underdog are more traditional tactics.

Sterling expects USC's starters to play at least three full quarters and rack up 60 to 70 points to “no more than a field goal for Idaho.”

Jeff Haney can be reached at 259-4041 or at [email protected].

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