Jon Ralston on how Nevada could be Western bellwether

Friday, Aug. 10, 2007 | 7:19 a.m.

If you take as a given that the presidential nominating process is insane, this week's maneuvers and speculated countermoves are easier to explain.

Nevada folks are trying to spin a rosy scenario in the wake of dominoes beginning to fall that will result in the state going from the Avis of the White House contest to being more of a Budget or Dollar state. "The decision by South Carolina's Republicans to hold their primary on Jan. 19 will not diminish the Nevada Democratic caucuses in any way," Nevada Democratic Party Chairwoman Jill Derby insisted.

Well, maybe.

Although Nevada Republicans, late to the caucus party and virtually ignored by the GOP hopefuls, have much more to lose in the short run, the inevitable movement of both Iowa and New Hampshire before Jan. 19 is not the timetable the Democrats were hoping for, either.

Being second behind Iowa, now scheduled for Jan. 14, and before New Hampshire, scheduled for Jan. 22, ensured Nevada would be a critical momentum state between the two traditional venues. So if Nevada does not move, the question really becomes: Is being third as good as being second?

The answer is not as obvious as it may seem. There are many factors to consider.

First, the aforementioned lunacy of the process itself, which has some speculating that Iowa may actually move as far forward as mid-December. A more likely scenario is that Iowa will be early January (perhaps even Jan. 2) and New Hampshire will go the week after.

The 2008 race has featured unprecedented early attention and combined with the campaign dynamic, as it now exists, has been characterized by saturation coverage in the mainstream media and on the Web. That will continue through the New Year and the focus in January will be intense, including on Nevada.

That's why these candidates - at least the Democrats and soon the Republicans - keep coming here. They know that every little bump will help as the media declare campaigns rising, falling and moribund in the first month of 2008.

So there will be plenty more opportunities for them to pander to the Culinary, burnish their Yucca Mountain bona fides and speak Spanish to the burgeoning Hispanic population. Not to worry.

Second, no one should be the least surprised this is occurring. What many in Nevada probably don't realize is that both Iowa and New Hampshire have state laws mandating when their balloting occurs.

In New Hampshire, state law requires the primary be at least seven days before any "similar election." Iowa's law says that the caucus "shall be at least eight days earlier than the scheduled date for any meeting, caucus or primary ..."

So they will move. It's just a matter of when they will announce the changes and what dates they will choose. It's also possible that New Hampshire might try to leapfrog in front of Iowa, but that seems less likely. And the announcements may not come for months - did I mention how crazy this process is?

Of course, the longer those two seminal states delay, the better for Nevada. The more uncertainty, the more the candidates will not gamble and will continue to grace us with their sound bites and stump speeches.

It seems fairly obvious at this point that Nevada, if it is serious about starting a tradition to be an early decision state, should also enact a law vis-a-vis its caucus date. The key to Nevada remaining interesting to candidates is not the Hispanic vote or the labor constituency, but its ability to portray itself as a Western bellwether.

So it's simple: Here's what the Nevada Revised Statutes should say: "The caucus shall be at least one week before any meeting, caucus or primary scheduled in any state in the Intermountain West."

(Anyone for a special session of the Legislature to do this? I miss Carson City.)

No matter what happens - whether Nevada's second or third - if the state is the first in the West, it will retain its relevance in the nominating process. And the other three states mentioned this week - Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina - could also lay claim to preeminent regional representation - the Midwest, the Northeast and the South.

Nevada may have been trying harder to be a legitimate No. 2 in this strange race for supremacy. But the real goal for Nevada's Democrats and Republicans should be to ensure it is the Hertz of the West, whether the state is sandwiched between Iowa and New Hampshire or right after both of them.