Friday, Aug. 10, 2007 | 7:20 a.m.
Las Vegas Hilton odds
Team Over/ Line
Under
USC 11 -110
LSU 10.5 +130
W. Virginia 10 -155
Texas 10 +130
Florida 9.5 +130
Michigan 10 -105
Virginia Tech 9.5 -150
Louisville 10 +110
Oklahoma 10 even
Wisconsin 9 -170
Cal 9 +140
Arkansas 8.5 +145
Tennessee 8.5 -140
Georgia 9 +150
Ohio St. 9 -105
Florida St. 9 -110
UCLA 8.5 -145
Nebraska 8.5 -115
Boise St. 10 +160
Rutgers 9 -145
Texas A&M 7.5 -120
Arizona St. 7.5 +110
Miami, Fla. 8 -125
Hawaii 11 +165
TCU 9.5 +140
S. Carolina 7 -135
Auburn 8.5 even
Notre Dame 7.5 +115
Alabama 7.5 -160
UNLV 4.5 +150
20-cent lines in effect. For example, if the is -140 (risk $1.40 to win $1), the under is +120 (risk $1 to net $1.20). Odds subject to change.
The three biggest betting-line moves in college football regular-season wins wagering in Las Vegas have involved defending champion Florida, enigmatic Auburn and projected Mountain West Conference also-ran UNLV.
In each case, gamblers have been playing the "under" - meaning they're betting against the success of the Gators, Tigers and Rebels.
Florida has an easy nonconference slate, but some difficult Southeastern Conference matchups on its 12-game schedule, and the Gators would have to win 10 of those with a new quarterback and nine new starters on defense to make winners of "over" bettors.
The betting line on Florida's 9 1/2 wins has been adjusted from over, minus-150 (risk $1.50 to win $1) to under, minus-150, with 9 1/2 wins currently at plus-130 (risk $1 to net $1.30), according to odds at the Las Vegas Hilton sports book.
Auburn, 10-2 last regular season with a Cotton Bowl win against Nebraska, is hoping to compete for the SEC West title and a BCS bid, but the Tigers face four tough road games against Florida, Arkansas, LSU and Alabama.
Bettors perceived value in Auburn under 8 1/2, driving the price to minus-120 from an opener of plus-140.
The Rebels, 4-19 in coach Mike Sanford's two seasons and coming off three consecutive two-win seasons, face seven bowl teams this year, including four in a row. Bettors think it's too much to ask for the Rebels to exceed 4 1/2 victories, even with 15 returning starters and a couple of all-conference players in wide receiver Ryan Wolfe and linebacker Beau Bell.
The opening price had UNLV at minus-140 on the 4 1/2 wins, but that has been bet all the way to minus-170 on under 4 1/2.
USC and Hawaii command the highest regular-season win total at 11 victories each. USC is minus-110 either way, but Hawaii is minus-185 on the under 11.
NFL playoffs
Bettors can wager on whether each NFL team will make the playoffs this season in a new proposition at the Venetian sports book.
The NFL individual team playoff wagering is a "two-way" prop, meaning each team has a "yes" ( it will make the playoffs) and a "no" ( it won't) option. This structure is usually a good sign for bettors, because it keeps prices fair compared with one-way props, which give the house an artificially heavy advantage.
The New England Patriots, for example, are the team most likely to make the playoffs, according to the betting board, at minus-700. But bettors can also play the "no," betting the Patriots will miss the playoffs, at plus-450.
The Oakland Raiders are the team least likely to make the playoffs, at minus-1500. It's plus-1000 the Raiders will make the playoffs.
The playoff odds, of course, are correlated with team regular-season win totals. So teams with over/unders of around 8 1/2 regular-season wins, such as the Philadelphia Eagles and Carolina Panthers, are close to pick 'em in making the playoffs.
Last year only one of the eight teams that finished with exactly eight wins (the New York Giants) made the playoffs. Three of the four teams with exactly nine wins made the playoffs.
Fight game
The super featherweight world championship fight scheduled for Sept. 15 at the MGM Grand became more competitive from a betting outlook when Rocky Juarez replaced Jorge Barrios as the opponent for Juan Manuel Marquez this week.
Barrios, who pulled out of the fight because of retinal tears, had been listed as a betting underdog of nearly 4-1 against Marquez, who won the 130-pound title by beating Marco Antonio Barrera in March.
Watch for Juarez, who lost two close fights to Barrera last year, to be installed as an underdog of less than 3-1 in what should be an action-filled fight.
In two other big Las Vegas fights this fall, Manny Pacquiao is a minus-310 favorite against Barrera (plus-260) in their Oct. 6 match, according to Hilton odds, and Floyd Mayweather Jr. opened at minus-280 against Ricky Hatton (plus-240) in their Dec. 8 welterweight bout.
Shameless plug
I will talk poker and sports betting as a guest today on "Poker Straight From the Hilton," 3 to 4 p.m., KLAV 1230-AM.
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