Jon Ralston on why, after the winter and spring storms of criticism pass, Gov. Jim Gibbons, propped up by Nevada’s system, could still stand tall

Sunday, April 15, 2007 | 7:25 a.m.

"When you walk through a storm, hold your head up high

And don't be afraid of the dark.

At the end of the storm is a golden sky and the sweet silver song of a lark "

- "You'll Never Walk Alone"

I admit to being a sucker for musicals. And the words of that song from Rodgers & Hammerstein's "Carousel" keep whirling around in my head as I think about Gov. Jim Gibbons and the Legislature.

I believe the lyrics not only epitomize where Gibbons is now, but also encapsulate his political strategy (assuming he has one) and could portend his post-sine die future.

Stepping back from the insane asylum that the administration has erected, with too many inmates and not enough counselors, the Gibbons- ites may understand a basic, relentless truth about legislative sessions: Governors always win.

The degrees of victory are always different, but the post-session declarations have a familiarity - chief executives singing their praises with bright melodies. For Gibbons, the hope is larks will replace cuckoos.

At the end of the storm is a golden sky and the sweet silver song of a lark ...

And, despite the torrent of media criticism and circling of the ravenous vultures, Gibbons has every reason to believe the sun will shine come June 4 (or later, if a special session beckons). There may indeed be a method to what seems like madness.

Governors have immense power in Nevada, where lawmakers meet four months every other year. The governor proposes the budget and legislators rarely change it much. There's no reason to believe this year will be any different.

So is it not reasonable to believe that Gibbons will get his budget pretty much intact, will obtain some form of empowerment schools and will not raise taxes? If so, you will hear the gubernatorial lark singing, and with good reason.

Walk on through the wind, walk on through the rain, though your dreams be tossed and blown ...

Gibbons surely believes, if he holds his head up high and pushes on through the storm of his own creation, the skies will brighten once the session ends. If you look at the almost daily gaffe-fest that has characterized his early tenure, this proposition might seem ludicrous. But I think it is more than a real possibility - I think it might be likely.

Yes, his dream of being loved by the masses has been tossed aside and blown apart by his own supremely silly statements and breathtakingly strange actions. But if he has his way with the Legislature, as most governors do, that will become the backstory. The Democrats can claim whatever they like - perhaps they will get a sliver of all-day kindergarten - but the governor will drown them out.

Gibbons may indeed not be worrying about the incessant pounding he is bringing on himself because he has predicted the endgame: He obtains most of his agenda laid out in his budget, does not raise taxes and looks like a victor over the Gang of 63.

Walk on, walk on with hope in your heart and you'll never walk alone ...

Most musicals end happily. But sometimes in politics, the skies remain dark and hopes are dashed.

Observers of this administration might muse that if the rest of the Legislature is anything like what we have seen, the storm will only worsen. So long as Gibbons is allowed to speak to the media - friendly or otherwise - he is likely to say something that will get him in trouble. So long as The Wall Street Journal - and perhaps other national outlets catching the scent of something malodorous wafting from Nevada - keep looking into the governor, more adverse publicity could be coming his way. And so long as he insists on walking alone, perhaps he will end up walking alone.

Very soon now, Gibbons will have to start signing bills. Or, perhaps, vetoing them.

Will he, as most governors do, sign almost everything? Or will he start vetoing legislation, perhaps in dramatic fashion, partly to shore up his base and show he is a man of his no-tax word?

Will he be overridden? How will that play? And if it plays well among Republicans and in his rural-northern base, will that be enough to stop the madness?

For those who think the governor's darkest days are yet to come, I am not so sure. Gibbons, who is prone to tripping and seems about to break his governorship with every step, may not care if he is walking alone come June 4, so long as he is still walking.