Jon Ralston on the likelihood that Gov. Jim Gibbons might face the same fate as Gray Davis in California

Sunday, April 8, 2007 | 7:30 a.m.

The governor won the election with less than 50 percent of the vote - widely seen as the lesser of two evils. He was buffeted by problems from the day he took office, and by April, his approval ratings had dropped below 30 percent. With a personal style seen as stiff and aloof, and with controversies about some of his campaign contributors, he confronted a recall despite lack of any proof of criminal wrongdoing.

Six months later, Gray Davis no longer was governor of California. Arnold Schwarzenegger was sworn in five weeks after the election.

Four years later, across the border from the Golden State, the parallels are eerie. All of those Davis descriptors fit Jim Gibbons - and California's governor was not facing an FBI probe when he was ousted. And yet, any notion of a recall, while it is being whispered among top Democrats and shouted among cybermaniacs, still seems nuts.

Only two governors in U.S. history have been recalled - Davis and North Dakota's Lynn Frazier 86 years ago. It is tremendously difficult and expensive to qualify and win a recall election. And there is little evidence that Gibbons' opponents have the wherewithal, cohesiveness and discipline to pull it off.

The secretary of state's office provides a comprehensive guide to recalls, with answers to basic questions. With that in mind, I hereby provide my own recall Q & A:

Anyone who wants to be on the ballot would have to collect just as many signatures. In California, the recall must take place within 80 days of certification; in Nevada, the longest it could be is 50 days. The cost of qualifying a recall petition here would be at least $500,000, experts say, and may be as much as $750,000.

So you see why I say it would be very difficult.

Even more provocative if Gibbons' numbers continue to spiral downward is what the Republicans will do. Might someone be sent to the governor to tell him to resign so the GOP doesn't lose its fifth constitutional office to the Democrats? (Maybe ex-Sen. Paul Laxalt, once assigned by President Reagan to tell Philippines strongman Ferdinand Marcos to "cut and cut cleanly," will volunteer to deliver that same message to Gibbons if that time ever comes.)

So at least for now, I think Gibbons will, despite his best efforts, survive. But I am sure a lot of people were saying the same thing about Gray Davis about this time four years ago.