Jeff Haney on why Bourdais is a solid bet, but lacks value

Friday, April 6, 2007 | 7:16 a.m.

Frenchman Sebastien Bourdais looks like the driver to catch in the Champ Car World Series, but bettors won't find much value on Bourdais to win Sunday's season-opening Vegas Grand Prix on the streets of downtown Las Vegas.

Bourdais, who won seven of the circuit's 14 races last year on the way to his third consecutive series championship, was listed at odds ranging from even money (at the Las Vegas Hilton) to 2-1 (at Caesars and all other Harrah's properties) to win Sunday's race, expected to field about 17 cars.

Other sports books, such as MGM Mirage properties and Station Casinos, had Bourdais in between, in the 6-5 to 7-5 range. (As always, odds are subject to change.)

Bourdais, who won the Champ Car races at Las Vegas Motor Speedway in 2004 and 2005, told reporters he expects a more exciting race Sunday on the 12-turn, 2.44-mile street course.

"I really didn't have anything against the oval," Bourdais said. "It's just the wind package we had didn't make for exciting racing, at least as far as drivers go, because we couldn't really drive the car. It was just flat all the way around, just very much like the IRL is doing these days, and we're not big fans of it."

A bet on Bourdais at a price approaching even money might not qualify as a "bridge-jumper" (like when you bet a hefty chunk of your bankroll on a 1-5 shot to show at Hollywood Park), but it's close.

And while it's a nice touch that fans can place a wager on their favorite driver before heading down to Grand Central Parkway on Sunday, more serious bettors probably won't find many attractive prices on the other leading contenders, either.

Veteran Las Vegas driver Paul Tracy was installed as a 9-2 shot to win Sunday, the second-lowest odds on the board at the Las Vegas Hilton, with fellow Las Vegan Alex Tagliani a longer shot at 15-1.

Australian driver Will Power, looking for his first win in 17 career Champ Car starts, was made a 6-1 shot to upend Bourdais by winning Sunday, with rookie Neel Jani at 5-1.

Justin Wilson, runner-up to Bourdais in last year's driver standings, checks in at 10-1.

The most heralded rookie driver in the race, 18-year-old Graham Rahal, was listed at 7-1 to win in his series debut. Rahal, the son of former Indy 500 winner Bobby Rahal and a high school senior in Ohio, enters the circuit as a teammate of Bourdais.

Arena football

Bettors who like to chart day-to-day moves in betting lines have to be delighted with the Arena Football League wagering scene this season.

In several recent games, gamblers could have won by betting either side - or both sides - of a game because of fluctuations in the point spread.

The Arena Football League's betting market is smaller and therefore more fluid than major sports such as the National Football League. It doesn't take much money at the betting window to generate line moves.

Even bettors who don't originate the line movement with their own handicapping and wagering can profit. If you agree with the line move, for instance, try to find a slow-moving shop and bet the "stale" number there. Or, if you disagree with the line move, wait until the momentum in a line move dies down and then bet the other way.

Either strategy - betting the favorite early or the underdog late, in this case - would have resulted in a winning ticket in last Sunday's Las Vegas Gladiators-Utah Blaze game.

Utah opened an 8-point favorite and closed an 11-point favorite before beating the Gladiators by 10 points, 57-47.

The point spreads in a couple of this week's games were moving again at Las Vegas books. The Austin Wranglers went from a favorite as high as 2 points to a 2-point underdog against Utah. The Georgia Force went from a 6-point underdog to a 3 1/2-point underdog against the Philadelphia Soul.