Letter: Middle East leaders still have trump card

Sunday, April 1, 2007 | 7:33 a.m.

The Bush administration's contention that the situation in Iraq would descend into chaos or worse if American troops left is not being questioned by Congress or the American press. It is not clear that this prediction is any more correct than others made by the administration.

The two powers with the greatest influence over what would happen are Iran and Saudi Arabia. They are not threatening war in support of their respective constituencies, the Shia and the Sunni. Instead, they are talking about ways to stabilize the situation, while our two-carrier task force in the gulf is rattling sabres and beating its breast in an attempt to frighten Iran.

Iran and Saudi Arabia want us out. Even our allies Qatar and the United Arab Emirates have said they are not a party in the dispute with Iran and will not allow attacks from their soil.

We should realize that there is a card that has not been played by Mideast countries, namely another 1970s-style oil embargo, which could be used against the United States until we withdraw from Iraq. Through the four-year war in Iraq, the only ones paying the price have been the troops we all claim to support.

If we faced another oil embargo that drove the price of gas to $10 a gallon, many Americans now comfortably driving their sport utility vehicles and watching the war on television would soon demand a quick exit. With our overhanging debt, such a shock could also result in flight from the dollar and major instability in our economy.

Hopefully, we will have the good sense to support a phased withdrawal before our Army is completely depleted and Mideast Muslims play this trump card.

Elwood Anderson, Las Vegas