Friday, Sept. 29, 2006 | 7:33 a.m.
Both New York baseball teams are still favored to win the pennant in their respective leagues, according to oddsmakers.
Yet whereas the Yankees deserve to command such a short price on the betting board, some glaring vulnerabilities on the Mets' side of the equation could derail a potential Subway Series.
The NL East champion Mets could conceivably play any of five teams in the first round of the playoffs, scheduled to begin Tuesday, thanks to a riveting wild-card chase that won't be sorted out until the regular season concludes this weekend (or later, if a tiebreaker comes into play).
No matter who they end up facing, the Mets could be in trouble thanks primarily to a so-so pitching staff that got worse Thursday night when it was announced that supposed ace Pedro Martinez, who had essentially been a nonfactor since midseason, would not play in the postseason because of a torn tendon in his left calf muscle.
If the Mets are installed as betting favorites in the division series, it would be worthwhile to consider the underdog, according to professional handicapper Tim Trushel.
"I'll argue with the premise that the Mets should automatically be considered the favorite," Trushel said.
Heading into today's game the Mets had lost seven of 10 since clinching the division title.
"They're already down Pedro, so that leaves you with (Tom) Glavine, who can be suspect and is getting up there in age, then guys like Steve Trachsel and Oliver Perez, who don't inspire a lot of confidence," Trushel said.
Either Roy Oswalt-led Houston or Los Angeles, with its solid front line of Derek Lowe, Brad Penny and Greg Maddux, could enter a series against the Mets with a pitching advantage.
"If the Mets play L.A., you'll have two ballparks that especially this time of year give a pretty good advantage to pitching and defense," said Trushel, who gives the edge to the Dodgers in both areas.
In the AL it's a different story. Play against the Yankees juggernaut at your own risk, Trushel said.
"That Yankees team, up and down the lineup, is built to just clobber you," said Trushel, who is online at sportsmemo.com. "They could pound anyone into submission."
Trushel also warned against placing too much weight on emotional or motivational factors in a five-game or seven-game baseball series, especially when one team falls behind, say, two games to none.
The old "must-win" mentality can sometimes unduly influence the betting line in baseball, Trushel said.
"I try to discount what I call the 'series factor' and just analyze each game on its own," he said. "In the NBA, for example, a defense can benefit from an extra effort, but I don't think that applies to baseball. I honestly don't think a baseball team can sit down and say, 'OK, guys, we really need this one, so I'm going to hit the ball 10 feet farther, or I'll expand my range by 10 feet, or I'll throw 5 mph faster.'
"It has served me well to ignore the sentiment that might be resonating among the general public and on 'Baseball Tonight.' "
Awards betting
Although wagering on postseason awards is not permitted in Nevada under state gaming regulations, betting patterns at European "trading exchange" TradeSports.com provide a glimpse at baseball's likely award winners.
In the NL MVP race, Philadelphia's Ryan Howard (58 home runs, 146 RBIs heading into Thursday's rain-delayed game in Washington ) is a big favorite, the equivalent of better than 2 1/2-1. The Yankees' Derek Jeter (.340 batting average) is about a 2-1 favorite to win the AL MVP.
Arizona's Brandon Webb (16-7, 2.88 ERA) is a 4-1 favorite to win the NL Cy Young Award, while Minnesota's Johan Santana (19-6, 2.77, 245 strikeouts) is a prohibitive favorite to win the AL Cy Young.
Contest update
Advantage player "Sooner Adam" went 5-2 against the point spread to oust Ken Weitzner this past weekend and advance in the Leroy's "Money Talks" $100,000 invitational football handicapping contest.
In this week's matchup in the single-elimination bracket, professional handicapper Andy Iskoe faces Tony Ricci, the winner of last year's Las Vegas Hilton "Super Contest" handicapping competition. The show is conducted from 7 to 9 tonight at the Silverton (KSHP 1400-AM).
In the Leroy's "Beat Bogdanovich" contest, a $50,000 head-to-head showdown between professional gamblers Nick Bogdanovich and Fezzik (one name only, please), Bogdanovich went 4-2 and Fezzik finished 4-1-1 this past week. Today's edition of the weekly contest takes place from 2 p.m. to 3 p.m. at Fitzgeralds (KENO 1460-AM).
Bogdanovich is 12-5-1 on the season to Fezzik's 11-5-2 for a combined record of 23-10-3 (69.7 percent) against the point spread.
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