Gibbons keeps lead but support falling away

Michael J. Mishak and J. Patrick Coolican

Saturday, Oct. 28, 2006 | 7:46 a.m.

Some Republicans have taken a deep breath and now think Rep. Jim Gibbons, their candidate for governor, can ride out accusations that he assaulted a woman and his campaign tried to conceal the incident.

At least, that's what they're saying publicly.

They feel emboldened by a Reno Gazette-Journal poll that shows Gibbons still leading his opponent, state Sen. Dina Titus, 47 percent to 41 percent.

Republicans believe Gibbons is doing what's required, burrowing ahead with his campaign while the story of his night out on Oct. 13 runs its course. Before leaving Southern Nevada on Thursday night for safer ground in Reno, he spent the day at private fundraisers and held no public events.

Republicans have found a common enemy: the media, and the "liberal media" in particular.

"I think a lot of people are really appalled at the conduct of the media," said state Sen. Bob Beers, Gibbons' opponent in the Republican primary and now a Republican Party spokesman.

Ryan Erwin, a Republican consultant, said the whole situation reeked of a "media circus." "Asking Gibbons the same questions every day in a different city is really distracting to his campaign," he said. "And it doesn't provide voters with anything new."

Still, there is some debate among Republicans about whether Gibbons should answer questions about the incident, or just ignore them.

"It's been my experience, in these types of things: the less said, the better," said Pete Ernaut, a Republican lobbyist and consultant. He said the allegations are so sensational that Gibbons might be benefiting from people finding them outlandish and not believable.

Chuck Muth, a conservative activist and blogger, recommended that Gibbons find an ally in the press and grant an interview. He said his initial fears about a Gibbons slide from the allegations have been tempered in the last couple of days because of the potential for backlash against the press.

Steve Wark, a Republican consultant, said the story has now supplanted the Gibbons message. The only recourse: Spend every dime - and Gibbons has between $500,000 and $1 million, according to the Associated Press - to get his message out.

Democrats, meanwhile, are ecstatic, and they're especially happy that Titus has managed to remain mostly mum on the subject of Gibbons.

She's currently running a TV advertisement that centers on a report that Gibbons hired an illegal immigrant as a housekeeper but would seem to obliquely remind voters about the assault and cover-up allegations.

Gary Gray, a Democratic consultant, said Titus was smart to keep away from the story.

Jennifer Duffy, an analyst with the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, isn't convinced the scandal is having much effect on the race. She said the allegations are sucking all the oxygen out of the race and not allowing Titus to talk about her issues or spread her message.

Del Ali, who conducted the Gazette-Journal poll, disagreed. He told the Gazette-Journal, "He is below 50 percent and sinking fast. And with the undecideds, I would be shocked if any of them went to Gibbons. So, let's throw the undecideds to her, and if he keeps dropping, at a certain point, she will overtake him." The poll was taken before Chrissy Mazzeo repeated her allegations and made some new ones at a news conference Wednesday.

Dan Hart, a Democratic consultant, said advertising rates for the local news on KLAS Channel 8 have risen recently, a reflection of rising ratings. KLAS has pursued the story aggressively. That should be worrisome for Gibbons, he said, because so much television news has focused on the assault allegation.

"He's in trouble," Hart said. "How much trouble? We don't know at this stage. If there's movement in the electorate, it's away from him. There's no scenario I can spin here where this can be good for him."