Las Vegas Sun

March 28, 2024

Jeff Haney breaks down the over/under wagers for the NBA season

The power in the NBA will be concentrated in the Western Conference this season, according to regular-season victory totals posted by oddsmakers at the Las Vegas Hilton.

The three highest victory totals in the league, by a fairly wide margin, are attached to teams from the West - the Dallas Mavericks (over/under 56 1/2 wins), the Phoenix Suns (56) and the San Antonio Spurs (56).

The Spurs' total of 56 was bet down from the Hilton's opener of 57 1/2 wins - originally the biggest number on the board. The Suns have been bet up a bit in early wagering from an opening line of 55 1/2 wins.

Gamblers can bet each team will finish with "over" or "under" their posted total of victories, laying minus-110 (risk $1.10 to win $1) on each side. No parlays are permitted in this type of wagering.

The NBA's 82-game regular season is scheduled to begin Oct. 31.

The defending champion Miami Heat represent the East's best chance, with a posted total of 50 1/2 victories. The Heat turned it on in the postseason and won the league title after managing only 52 wins last regular season - landing "under" last year's line of 58 1/2, tied with the Spurs for the highest number on the betting board.

Heat management stood pat during the offseason, so Pat Riley will again rely on his superstar tandem of Shaquille O'Neal and Dwyane Wade.

The Spurs, meanwhile, exceeded the high expectations bettors and oddsmakers placed on them a year ago, finishing with a conference-best 63 regular-season wins. San Antonio returns a strong base of Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobili and Tony Parker, though concerns about its supporting cast might have driven down that lofty opening over/under figure.

Phoenix has emerged as a popular choice among preseason prognosticators to go all the way this season, largely due to the return of Amare Stoudemire from a knee operation. The Suns also bested expectations last year, finishing 54-28 despite a preseason over/under of just 43 1/2 victories.

Befitting their league-high over/under total, the Mavericks return with a deep and versatile roster after falling short against the Heat in last year's NBA Finals. Dallas went 60-22 last season, smashing its betting-board number of 53 1/2 wins.

The Detroit Pistons are due for a letdown, according to the oddsmakers, after recording an NBA-best 64 wins last season, shattering their posted total of 50 1/2. This year's over/under stands at just 49 1/2 wins, thanks in no small part to center Ben Wallace's defection to the Chicago Bulls.

Last year's biggest disappointments from a betting perspective were the Houston Rockets, who went 34-38 despite a posted total of 53 1/2 wins, and the New York Knicks, who won only 23 games to go well "under" their figure of 42 1/2.

Houston couldn't get Yao Ming and Tracy McGrady healthy and on the court together nearly enough, while the Knicks were plagued by chaos and turmoil throughout the organization. The Knicks' over/under for this season stands at 31 wins, with the Rockets' at 46.

"Over" players looking for a dark horse might consider the Hornets, who finished 38-44 last season but went deep in revitalizing their roster in the offseason. New Orleans signed forward Peja Stojakovic to a big free-agent contract to juice the offense, and added center Tyson Chandler to bolster its defense.

The Hornets' over/under has been bet up slightly at the Hilton, from 39 1/2 to 40 regular-season wins.

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