3rd District race considered a ‘toss-up’ by Beltway expert

Sunday, Oct. 15, 2006 | 7:27 a.m.

Nevada's 3rd Congressional District race is shaping up to be more competitive than originally thought.

Evidence of that came last week when Washington D.C.-based political expert Stuart Rothenberg moved the race from the "lean Republican" category to the "toss-up category" in his nonpartisan political report.

If the race is perceived as more competitive, that could mean good things for Democrat Tessa Hafen, who is challenging two-term incumbent Rep. Jon Porter.

One high-profile Democrat after another rolled into town this week for Hafen.

Former President Bill Clinton, former Secretary of State Madeline Albright and 2004 presidential nominee John Kerry all came to support and raise money for Hafen.

They are the latest in a long list of political VIPs appearing in Southern Nevada on Hafen's behalf.

Although Porter held an event last week with U.S. drug czar John Walters to announce a nationwide survey on the impact of drugged driving on U.S. highways, Porter's campaign has been much more low-key than Hafen's.

That could be a problem for Porter, according to Rothenberg.

While he still gives Porter a slight advantage, the national climate coupled with Porter's low-key campaign could have disastrous results for the incumbent seeking his third term, he said.

"The Jon Porter (R)-Tessa Hafen (D) race continues to be tight, proving that some races are less about the candidates and more about the national environment," Rothenberg said in his Oct. 6 report.

"Porter has not solidified himself in the district (in part because of population changes), and Hafen remains a real threat even though on paper she shouldn't be."

Hafen, a former press secretary for U.S. Sen. Harry Reid, has sought to capitalize on the national political environment, which is marked by low ratings for President Bush and dissatisfaction with the GOP-led Congress.

The Mark Foley congressional page scandal has likely only hardened those sentiments. The Florida congressman resigned at the end of last month and GOP leaders have been accused of knowing for months - or even years - about inappropriate e-mails from Foley to pages.

A new Hafen TV ad seeks to link Porter to the Foley scandal. After citing Porter's support and loyalty to President Bush and GOP leaders, the ad says that Porter was rewarded with "thousands in contributions from House leaders, leaders who covered up the action of sexual predator Mark Foley."

Porter did not respond to the Sun's request for comment on the commercial and his campaign.

That's in line with his approach to this year's election. While he is pounding the airwaves, Porter's campaign Web site lists no campaign events and Porter has refused to talk with half of the print media outlets in Las Vegas.

Last week, Porter's campaign hired a spokesman. But on several questions about immigration posed by the Sun, he admitted he wasn't able to speak for the congressman.