Democrats are not writing off rural voters for 2008

Thursday, Nov. 30, 2006 | 6:57 a.m.

WASHINGTON - Trying to get out the Democratic vote in rural Nevada may have been a waste of time for Dina Titus, but not for Howard Dean.

The Democratic National Committee chairman, who has taken plenty of hits for his efforts to turn red states blue, plans to continue funding three rural organizers in Nevada through 2008 as part of his 50 State Strategy to rebuild the Democratic Party base in forgotten terrain and help swing the presidential election.

The party points to gains that the Democrats made in the November midterm election in rural Republican strongholds nationwide - as well as close calls such as Nevada's 2nd Congressional District, where Democrat Jill Derby lost by only 5 percentage points to Republican Dean Heller in a district with a lopsided GOP voter registration edge - as signs that the "rurals" can go blue.

While the state party concedes it will be a long shot bringing cow counties into the fold, it plans to keep chipping away at the traditional Republican lock on rural Nevada.

"I don't know that we'll ever win Elko County by a huge margin, but we need to reach out to Elko and let them know many of their values line up with ours," party spokeswoman Kirsten Searer said.

Titus launched her campaign with a promise to reach out to rural Nevada, only to realize it might not have been worth her while. She ended up winning only her own urban Clark County, and figures she could have picked up the votes she got in the rurals even if she had stayed closer to home during the campaign.

"People won't like it, but the cold, hard fact is, there are some districts that one party or the other ought to write off," Republican strategist Chuck Muth said. "Put your effort and your time and your money in where you can make a difference."

Democrats, still crunching the election data, cannot say yet whether their get-out-the-vote efforts paid off in rural Nevada. But they point to signs of progress.

Derby narrowed the gap in the congressional race more than anyone could have imagined months ago. Experts credit a candidate who spoke to rural values - she's a Lovelock native with deep Nevada roots - and is conservative on fiscal issues. Plus, she ran what has been called a flawless campaign with terrific TV ads.

Attorney General-elect Catherine Cortez Masto won virtually half the rural counties. "It does show a Democrat can win," said Carissa Snedeker, Dean's point person in Fernley.

The differences have as much to do with the candidates as the issues. Urban Democrats such as Titus still face rural fears of urban water grabs and anti-Southern Nevada biases, while other Democratic candidates likely benefited from a national wave of voter discontent with the Bush administration's handling of the war in Iraq and GOP's links to corruption.

Nationwide, Republicans still carry white rural voters by 76 percent, but they lost 3 points to Democrats, according to a postelection poll by Democracy Corps, a progressive think tank founded by Clinton strategist James Carville.

Heading into the 2008 election, Democrats see the West's mountain states - including Nevada, with its early caucus - as the road to the White House. With rising Hispanic populations and independents who are less socially conservative than those elsewhere, Democrats believe they can capture voters and tilt the election.

"I don't think there's any question there's real value in investing in areas where we haven't traditionally focused, and building the party in that area and not ceding ground," said Karl Agne, a senior adviser to Democracy Corps.

But he cautions that Democrats have a lot of work to do between now and 2008.

Polls show voters on Nov. 7 cast ballots more because of their displeasure with Republicans than their embrace of Democrats. Party leaders in Washington, including Senate Majority Leader-elect Harry Reid of Nevada, have to convince voters they can provide solutions on working-class issues such as education and health care, and offer a change on big-ticket items such as the war and ethics reform.

"What Democrats do in the next 18 months really makes a big, big difference," Agne said.

Dean's organizers have been in Nevada for about one year. The party has opened offices in Fernley in Lyon County and Minden in Douglas County - the first rural headquarters many can remember. In Pahrump, where the Democratic National Committee organizer is moving on but is expected to be replaced, attendance at party events has dramatically increased.

Titus' campaign manager Marlene Lockard said she's "not ready to write off rural Nevada."

"I do think the face of rural Nevada is changing," she said. "I think there is all sorts of potential for Democratic presidential candidates in the state."

Republican strategist Ryan Erwin says if the party wants to focus away from its urban base, that's fine by him.

"I hope they focus on the rurals because I think it's a waste of resources for them," he said. "If I were a Democrat trying to win Nevada, I would focus on the urban areas - and not on the rurals."

Sun reporter J. Patrick Coolican contributed to this report.