Brian Greenspun on China’s potential and how this big land is taking to Vegas-style gaming in Macau

Sunday, Nov. 19, 2006 | 7:15 a.m.

So, let me tell you about China.

And why not? Everybody else is. In fact, practically everywhere I go China is the topic of conversation. Whether it is about economic opportunity, environmental pollution and potential eco-disaster, human rights issues, North Korean nukes, labor challenges vis-a-vis American jobs or practically any other subject, China is the topic. Period.

That's the main reason my wife and I went to China right before the elections.

Normally the chance to inject myself into a significant national and statewide election would be too much to pass up, but when the alternative was to see China up close and personal, well, it was an easy decision - especially given the way we got to see it.

Over the next few days I will try to share with you my observations after spending more than two weeks on a study tour with the Brookings Institution. I am a member of the board of trustees of the Brookings Institution, the oldest and largest think tank in the United States. Its mission is to provide unvarnished, independent research on all manner of policy issues to the executive and legislative branches of government as well as others interested in long-term solutions.

Brookings had planned this trip in part to open up its research center in conjunction with Tsinghua University in Beijing. Tsinghua is the institution in China at which most, if not all, of China's leaders have been educated.

So, what did we learn?

For starters, China is a very big country. And while it has a land mass not dissimilar to that of the United States, it has 1.3 billion people. Our country just celebrated its 300 millionth person last month. That is 1 billion people short of the world's most populous country. And therein lies the story of China's future, its opportunity for success and a potential recipe for disaster.

Our first stop before we hit the mainland was Macau. Las Vegans are familiar with that small, once-Portuguese-run island off the southeast coast of China. It is the only place on this planet that boasts Las Vegas-style gambling right next door to a market of more than a billion people.

Las Vegas-based companies such as Venetian-parent Las Vegas Sands, Wynn Resorts and MGM Mirage have all found a home there - with plenty more to come - and with that involvement came a giant boost in their public stock prices that reflects the incredible opportunities that await those willing to invest. The market is not wrong.

I can tell you that Wynn Las Vegas has nothing on the quality of experience that Steve's hotel in Macau offers its customers. It is, as has always been the case, the trendsetter when it comes to gaming, entertainment and the overall experience.

That, in itself, is a mouthful because Steve Wynn has bet big on his belief that he can change the Asian mind-set about gambling, which has been more a "show me where to gamble like crazy and forget the frills" attitude, a desire Macau has been able to satisfy ever since gambling was first introduced there.

But now everyone in Macau seems to be getting into the Las Vegas-style act with what promises to be thousands of new hotel rooms and hundreds of thousands of square feet of gaming, entertainment and shopping in the next two or three years.

Will it work? While some may disagree, I don't see how they can fail. Macau will do in five to 10 years what it has taken Las Vegas more than half a century to achieve.

Why am I so bullish? The answer is what I saw right next door on the Chinese mainland.