Jon Ralston attempts to predict the results of the state’s elections in an unpredictable year

Sunday, Nov. 5, 2006 | 8:06 a.m.

Self-pity is such an unproductive, corrosive emotion.

And yet I feel so sorry for myself today as I have to continue this infernal tradition of making predictions on the Sunday before the election. Oh, I don't expect anyone out there to feel my pain. It's all self-inflicted - something I have in common with Jim Gibbons these days.

But the Gibbons-Dina Titus conundrum - who do people like less these days? - is only one of many potentially close races I have to foretell. Many of the statewide races and perhaps both of the competitive congressional contests also could be tight. Never has the general election weather seemed so blustery with unpredictable national and local storms.

I still believe the Democratic turnout machine will be as good as it ever has been this cycle, and I think the state GOP is as irrelevant as ever. But will the Election Day effort by the Democrats make up for a fairly strong early voting/mail ballot showing by the Republicans? Can it push some of their candidates over the top?

The quintet below could go either way - thus the onset of self-pity - but here's what I think:

Governor: Even if Jim Gibbons was looking for love in all the wrong places - whether it was at McCormick & Schmick's or a Caribbean cruise ship - he has maintained his lead in most polls. But how can he possibly survive after those stories and disclosure that an illegal immigrant was once working in his house? Two words: Dina Titus.

Her negatives - driven up by Gibbons - are as high or higher than his and without his level of positives. I think he will hold on, mostly thanks to his Northern supporters, who prefer total denial to Dina Taxes. Gibbons, 46 percent; Titus, 44 percent; the rest and none of these candidates, 10 percent.

Secretary of state: This is a coin flip. Republican Danny Tarkanian has surprised everyone with his brazen inoculation campaign on his baggage and with his campaigning resilience. Democrat Ross Miller has worked tirelessly to exploit that baggage in recent weeks, and it just might be enough. Miller, 49 percent; Tarkanian, 47 percent; rest and none, 4 percent.

Treasurer: Republican Mark DeStefano has been assailed by the media and his Democratic opponent, Kate Marshall, for his controversial past. Marshall wanted to be secretary of state but now makes it seem as if she has the perfect background for this job. She doesn't. But her Northern strength should carry her to victory. Marshall, 48 percent; DeStefano, 46 percent; the rest and none, 6 percent.

Congressional District 2: Republican Dean Heller was lucky he didn't lose to the Club for Growth in the primary. And he is lucky he will hang on against the well-funded, near-flawless campaign of Jill Derby in the general. The district is just too Republican. Heller, 49 percent; Derby 46 percent; the rest, 5 percent.

Congressional District 3: If ever Republican Jon Porter were going to lose his seat, this would be the year. Democrat Tessa Hafen has morphed Porter into George W. Bush and has performed well as a candidate. But I think her campaign didn't do enough early on to combat those disingenuous, cynical ads about native Nevadan Hafen being a D.C. outsider. That hurt. Maybe just enough. Porter, 48 percent; Hafen, 46 percent; the rest, 6 percent.

Miscellaneous: By all rights, Justice Nancy Becker should lose with the state's largest media outlet on a jihad and a well-funded, articulate opponent. But she will hold her seat - barely - and her colleague, Michael Douglas, will win, too. The state Senate will remain unchanged; the Democrats will have 27 seats in the Assembly. Steve Martin will continue as controller. Question 4 will beat Question 5. Question 7 will lose, but it will be close. Susan Brager, carried by the unions, will win, but will need a map to find where the County Commission meets and a guide to what the issues are. And to pump up my prognostication percentage, some sure things:

Rep. Shelley Berkley and Sen. John Ensign will keep their jobs, Catherine Cortez Masto will be elected attorney general, Brian Krolicki will become lieutenant governor and Jerry Airola will still not be a cop.