Carter in final push on Ensign

Michael J. Mishak

Saturday, Nov. 4, 2006 | 7:25 a.m.

Over the last few months, Jimmy Carter has tried to make the case that his son Jack could deliver the all-important seat that Democrats need to retake the U.S. Senate.

But only days before Election Day, the younger Carter is still fighting a deep double-digit deficit in the polls, and his trump card - a former president and famous statesman - has already been played.

Despite the numbers, the Carter campaign insists its internal polls show a much closer race, and say it is moving ahead with an aggressive get-out-the-vote operation.

Moreover, Carter's campaign manager, Terry O'Connell, said the campaign is heartened by last-minute, high-profile Republican visits - President Bush in Elko on Thursday, Republican National Committee Chairman Ken Mehlman in Reno today. The eleventh -hour campaign appearances, he argues, reveal GOP weakness.

"It's all about watching what the Republicans do as opposed to what the polls say," O'Connell said.

Political experts, though, say a variety of factors have combined to place Nevada Sen. John Ensign's seat all but out of reach for Carter, while Democrats in similar circumstances across the country have made hay out of less.

After all, Ensign has been one of the most ardent supporters of the unpopular war in Iraq, has a Bush-friendly voting record and accepted - but later returned - campaign contributions from disgraced lobbyist Jack Abramoff.

"It's pretty amazing that in this election environment, in a state as competitive as Nevada, Ensign appears to be in good shape compared to his Republican colleagues," said Nathan Gonzales, political editor of the nonpartisan Rothenberg Political Report.

Democrats, he said, had high hopes for Carter earlier this year, but the national party - and Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid of Nevada - never followed through on significant fundraising for the candidate. In Reid's case, there has been speculation that his comfortable working relationship with Ensign muted his efforts for Carter.

That lack of institutional support hurt Carter's own fundraising efforts.

According to pre-election reports, Carter raised nearly $110,000 in the first 18 days of October. Ensign, on the other hand, transferred more than twice that amount from his campaign account to the National Republican Senatorial Committee - not the move of a candidate worried about his own election.

Joan McCarter, a contributing editor covering Mountain West politics for the liberal Web site Daily Kos, said Carter, whose campaign did not begin in earnest until early summer, is paying for his late start.

To make matters worse, a severe bout of colitis forced Carter off the campaign trail for three weeks in September.

Dan Hart, a veteran political consultant who's running the Democratic Party's independent expenditure effort on behalf of the entire Democratic ticket, acknowledged that Carter faces formidable odds Tuesday.

"People like Ensign," he said. "He's got all the nice-guy ingredients. It's hard to beat guys who are likable."

Others are less charitable.

Larry Sabato, director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia, said Carter's bid was doomed from the outset, despite a national wave of anti-incumbent sentiment.

"Nevada is Republican enough to sustain Ensign in a year like this," he said. "There's really nothing that Carter could have done to make a difference."