Jeff Haney on the horse to beat at the Breeders’ Cup Classic if you are putting money on the long shots

Friday, Nov. 3, 2006 | 7:24 a.m.

The champion of the Preakness and Travers stakes, Bernardini, could lock up his bid for Horse of the Year honors by winning the $5 million Breeders' Cup Classic on Saturday at Churchill Downs.

Bernardini, who drew the favorable No. 3 starting position in the 1 1/4-mile Classic, will certainly have the support of the betting public on horse racing's biggest day.

He was installed as an even-money morning-line favorite by Churchill Downs oddsmaker Mike Battaglia, and will probably be bet down to as low as 3-5 by post time at the track and in sure-to-be-overflowing Las Vegas race books.

A son of A.P. Indy and grandson of Seattle Slew, Bernardini brings an impressive pedigree and a six-race winning streak into the Classic, the centerpiece of the 23rd Breeders' Cup, an eight-race card worth a combined $20 million.

All of which makes Bernardini a perfect candidate ... to bet against.

At least if you're a long-shot player like handicapper Dave Tuley, the Las Vegas correspondent for the Daily Racing Form.

"Bernardini's the one everybody is talking about," said Tuley, who publicly predicted Bernardini's Preakness victory as a 12-1 shot. "But there are so many high-quality horses in this race, and in every race.

"That's what makes the Breeders' Cup such a bettor's delight. You can get a lot of these horses at better odds than any other race in their life."

Tuley will try to beat the heavy favorite by backing Sun King, 15-1 on the morning line, in the Classic. Trained by Nick Zito, Sun King drew the outside post, No. 13. His best chance is to come off the pace and rely on his signature finishing kick.

Bernardini figures to run on or close to the lead, but Tuley thinks fellow front-runners Lava Man and Lawyer Ron will apply intense pressure on the favorite, and that the early leaders could falter late.

"The race could set up for a closer, and Sun King has always been a closer," Tuley said.

Sun King's recent performances - second or third in his last four starts - could create even more value at the betting window, Tuley said.

"He fits a profile I like," Tuley said. "Horses that are improving, but not quite getting there to win, so the public is not on to them."

Tuley is projecting Bernardini to place second and long shot Giacomo third. The last time Giacomo ran at Churchill Downs, he won the 2005 Kentucky Derby at odds of 50-1.

Tuley's picks in Saturday's first two Breeders' Cup races have plenty in common. Both Appealing Zophie (10-1 in the Juvenile Fillies) and Pegasus Wind (15-1 in the Juvenile) are front-runners who led much of the way in their most recent race before fading.

"Both have a chance to steal it on the front end," Tuley said.

Appealing Zophie is coming off a sixth-place finish in the Alcibiades Stakes, but as Tuley pointed out, she was running against a closing bias at Keeneland that day. In her previous race, Appealing Zophie led wire-to-wire in the Spinaway Stakes at Saratoga.

Pegasus Wind, a D. Wayne Lukas trainee, was third in the Champagne Stakes at Belmont.

In the Filly & Mare Turf, Tuley is picking Mauralakana (15-1), a French import touted as a possible superstar in 2007. As with Bernardini at a nice price in the Preakness, however, "You'd rather be on the bandwagon early than late," Tuley said.

Tuley's remaining Breeders' Cup selections are Kelly's Landing (20-1) in the Sprint; Miesque's Approval (10-1) in the Mile; Lemons Forever (30-1) in the Distaff; and Better Talk Now (12-1) in the Turf.

Also noted

I'll be appearing on the Leroy's Sports Hour on Monday to talk sports and gambling with hosts John Kelly and Jimmy Vaccaro. The show airs from 2 p.m. to 3 p.m. weekdays on Fox Sports Radio, KENO 1460-AM.