Jon Ralston breaks down the field of candidates from top to bottom

Sunday, May 14, 2006 | 7:13 a.m.

After all the speculation, the bloviation and the rumination, the election field, finally, is set. And the real story this year is about who is not running much more than who will be on the ballot.

This is as true for the state's most important offices - governor, attorney general, U.S. Senate - as it is for county posts high and low, sheriff and recorder.

The absences stretch back to last year, when Assembly Speaker Richard Perkins' stunning withdrawal changed the gubernatorial race matrix, and continued through Friday's filing deadline, when Mayor Oscar Goodman's 61-acre-sized ego ran into his (at least momentary) sobriety and kept him from dramatically altering either the gubernatorial race or the U.S. Senate race.

But Campaign '06 also is the year in which the state's two most important law enforcement posts suddenly became open seats, as first Attorney General George Chanos and then Sheriff Bill Young decided to take the money and not run. Chanos will return to a lucrative law practice and a downtown land deal windfall, and Young surely will walk into a six- or seven-figure contract with a major casino company.

And as if to punctuate a year that already has mixed the sublime with the ridiculous, Recorder Fran Deane either consulted her psychic, talked to a doctor or read the tea leaves and decided, with an indictment pending, that she should, perhaps, not seek re-election.

So, with only 77 days until early voting begins on July 29, let the games really begin - against a national backdrop of a slowly imploding Republican Party and a local tableau of crimes and misdemeanors highlighted by the G-Sting convictions of two former Democratic county commissioners.

It's foolish to believe any of these candidates will campaign on real issues, as most pledged during the past fortnight to keep taxes and crime low and education quality and homeland security high. That is, they said nothing and hoped someone would believe it is something.

With such a short time before the primary and a longer-than-ever general election season (just under three months), what happens in the summer will be critical to what happens in the fall. Some of these races - perhaps even the most critical, for governor, could be decided by Aug. 15, when the turnout could be quite small.

Two years ago, primary turnout was 29 percent; four years ago, it was 28 percent; and in 2000, it was 23 percent. If it's that low again, anything could happen.

The questions that will be answered before Nov. 7, though, include whether any Democratic wave will wash out GOP chances in Nevada and whether money, from governor and U.S. Senate down to County Commission, will overwhelm populist appeal and grass roots.

Beware of candidates pledging ethics reform and better government hygiene in a year when curing the culture of corruption will be a theme up and down the ticket. My guess is the caveat is unnecessary because too many voters believe too many politicians are crooked, and any candidate pledging to straighten out the system will not be taken seriously.

The smartest hopefuls will cut through the ethics reform clutter and talk about education, health care and security.

They will be rewarded for eschewing the path of least thought, but few will risk it.

So it is likely that voters, whose attention spans are only slightly shorter than the candidates they will elect, will respond to the attack of the moment, the hot button at hand. Money will win out, as it almost always does, with some rare exceptions.

Below is a look at how the landscape shapes up this election season, with a look at the major races and the major candidates.

I have avoided some because it is too early to get a handle on them (judicial contests, state controller) or because it is unnecessary to pay attention to them (Congressional District 1, for instance, featuring incumbent Democratic Rep. Shelley Berkley in a heavily Democratic district).

Governor

The combatants: Democratic state Sen. Dina Titus, Democratic Henderson Mayor Jim Gibson, GOP Rep. Jim Gibbons, GOP state Sen. Bob Beers, GOP Lt. Gov. Lorraine Hunt.

The dynamic: Not since Richard Bryan and Bob List tangled a quarter century ago has there been a truly competitive race for the state's highest office. Since 1982, anointment politics has been immutable, with Bryan, Bob Miller and Kenny Guinn the beneficiaries.

Is this year any different?

Gibbons may indeed be this year's anointed one, having raised twice as much as any other contender, and the Democratic nominee may be tapped out come Aug. 15. The congressman has been embraced by shadow governor Terry Lanni, who runs the state's largest gaming company. Despite a series of verbal gaffes, Gibbons maintains a lead, including a prohibitive one in the primary. If you want a sign that he is still considered an overwhelming favorite, consider that Chancellor Jim Rogers, who is on record calling Gibbons unfit for the office, recently contributed to him.

The only other question is whether Gibson, so conservative that the Republicans have tried to convert him, can win a Democratic primary. He may get twice as much money as Titus, but will that be enough?

What Gibbons needs to do: Don't say much. Keep raising money. Hope the national GOP's problems aren't contagious.

What Beers needs to do: Hope Tax and Spending Control qualifies. Somehow engage Gibbons. Keep traveling the state and hope a small percentage of the state's 400,000 Republicans turn out.

What Hunt needs to do: Pray for a miracle. Drop out. Resurrect Frank Sinatra so he, instead of his son, can campaign for her.

What Titus needs to do: Find a formula that allows a liberal Democratic woman from the South to win a statewide race. Solidify the Democratic base. Pound Gibson for being a faux Democrat who has ethical baggage.

What Gibson needs to do: Spend enough money to overwhelm Titus and drive up turnout so that closer to half the state's 400,000 Democrats turn out. Hope Titus makes mistakes. Connect with voters.

Rating: Primaries - Strong lean Gibbons, lean Titus. General - Solid lean Gibbons.

Lieutenant governor

The combatants: GOP Treasurer Brian Krolicki, GOP ex-Las Vegas Councilwoman Janet Moncrief, GOP-ex-Lt. Gov. Lonnie Hammargren, Democratic ex-casino owner Bob Stupak, Democratic businessman Bob Unger.

The dynamic: Krolicki has to be the favorite by dint of having twice been on a statewide ballot and raising close to seven figures. But his name recognition is not overwhelming and anyone in office - even that office - for eight years has baggage.

Moncrief's candidacy is simply sad while ex-boyfriend Stupak's is simply pathetic and Hammargren's only slightly less so. Unger is the wild card, a well-connected local who will have plenty of help from the Democratic apparatus and, if he spends some of his own money, could get into the game.

What Krolicki needs to do: Keep raising money and spend it wisely. Keep talking about the Millennium Scholarship as if you had something to do with it.

What Unger needs to do: Hope the party's opposition research on Krolicki has some dynamite. Spend some money early to get his name out there.

What Hammargren needs to do: Spend a fortune. Hope his quirky stuff does not resurface. Don't send stunt doubles to events.

What Stupak needs to do: Destroy all existing references to his past candidacies and stunts as Vegas World owner. Actually spend that million dollars he deposited in a campaign account.

What Moncrief needs to do: Destroy all newspaper clips related to her council tenure, including that pesky indictment. Find a new sugar daddy now that Stupak is acting like hell hath no fury than a man scorned.

Rating: Solid lean Krolicki

Attorney general

The combatants: Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto, Republican ex-Judge Don Chairez

The dynamic: Cortez Masto is the serendipitous beneficiary of incumbent George Chanos' abrupt decision not to seek election to the job Gov. Guinn appointed him to last year. She was badly trailing Chanos in fundraising but now has latched onto a lot of his donors, and Lanni was on board with her from Day One.

Cortez Masto is a somewhat awkward candidate but has all the potential, based on her career as a gubernatorial aide and county staffer, to be a superb elected official.

Chairez, who was talking about running for state Supreme Court, switched when Chanos dropped out. He was not the first, second or third choice of Chanos or the GOP establishment but he is a name and a body. If he can get money, he might have a chance, especially because he is deified in some circles as standing up to the powers that be on a celebrated eminent domain case.

What Cortez Masto needs to do: Keep raising money. Put together a coherent campaign theme.

What Chairez needs to do: Get Gondolier Numero Uno Sheldon Adelson to back him, as he has Chanos. Find an issue besides eminent domain to latch onto.

Rating: Solid lean Cortez Masto

Secretary of state

The combatants: Republicans Danny Tarkanian and Brian Scroggins, Democrat Ross Miller.

The dynamic: Miller hopes that what worked for Dad, ex-Gov. Bob Miller, will work for him. He has all the backing from Dad's friends and others, and he will have plenty of money come Aug. 15 while the GOP nominee will be depleted - or broke.

Tarkanian and Scroggins already have been sniping at each other over the former's plan for an ID card for people who want to vote.

Scroggins has the backing of some GOP elected officials, a significant percentage of them fellow Mormons. And Tarkanian has the name and some campaign experience from last cycle's loss to state Sen. Mike Schneider.

What Miller needs to do: Keep raising money. Keep coming up with ideas related to the office.

What Tarkanian needs to do: Raise the issue of Scroggins soliciting money from contractors while on the contractors board - it's a real issue. Hope Dad's name - not to mention Mom's - carries some weight.

What Scroggins needs to do: Keep getting those endorsements. Get a hold of some of the stuff Schneider used against Tarkanian.

Rating: GOP primary - tossup. General - Solid lean Miller

Treasurer

The combatants: GOP Controller Kathy Augustine, GOP businessman Mark DeStefano, Democrat Kate Marshall.

The dynamic: DeStefano is a self-funding ambitious man who ran for regent last cycle but was booted for not living in the district. He has some skeletons - including a bankruptcy . But how does that compare to an impeachment and how can Augustine raise money? Marshall will be content to raise what money she can with the help of the Democratic elites and hope Augustine gets enough support to make DeStefano bleed.

What DeStefano needs to do: Spend his money on a positive campaign, remind folks of the impeachment if necessary. Hope his past stays in the past.

What Augustine needs to do: Find some money. Hope she can make whatever DeStefano's baggage is look worse than an impeachment.

What Marshall needs to do: Watch the GOP fun. Raise money.

Rating: Tossup

U.S. Senate

The combatants: GOP U.S. Sen. John Ensign, Democrat Jack Carter.

The dynamic: Ensign will raise a fortune. Carter, who has been in Nevada less than four years, will get little help from the national Democrats (hello Harry Reid). It's hard to envision this becoming a race. Period.

What Ensign needs to do: Ignore Carter. Spend a lot of money on touchy-feely, feel-good TV spots. Hope the anti-GOP wave bypasses him.

What Carter needs to do: Pray for a scandal. Pray for a Megabucks win. Pray for a Democratic wave even he can surf.

Rating: Near-lock Ensign

Congressional District 2

The combatants: GOP Secretary of State Dean Heller, GOP Assemblywoman Sharron Angle and GOP ex-Assemblywoman Dawn Gibbons, Democratic Regent Jill Derby.

The dynamic: This is Jim Gibbons' seat and his wife wants it. I'm not sure he wants her to have it, but that's beside the point. This is a GOP war, with two candidates with vulnerable Assembly records and one secretary of state known as a maverick and not well liked by some GOP elected officials for that reason.

No one gave Jill Derby much of a shot until it became clear the Republicans would eat each other alive.

What Heller needs to do: Keep raising more funds than his opponents. Show how he is conservative. Bank on his name ID.

What Angle needs to do: Spend as much time connecting with folks as she can. Play up her conservative bona fides. Explain voting for the largest budget in state history and why all her money is from out of state.

What Gibbons needs to do: Stop saying strange stuff on the trail. Find more money because she doesn't have much left. Explain voting for the largest tax increase in history.

What Derby needs to do: Raise money and watch as the GOP trio has a knife fight. Hope people forget all that loony stuff the regents have done. Hope Republicans will vote for her since there are about 40,000 more of them than Democrats.

Rating: GOP primary - tossup. General - Lean GOP nominee

Congressional District 3

The combatants: GOP Rep. Jon Porter, Democrat Tessa Hafen.

The dynamic: Porter shouldn't even have a race. He was coasting as 2006 arrived and then decided it was a good idea - or someone else did, I'd bet - to attack Sen. Harry Reid for holding onto that Jack Abramoff-linked cash.

A few weeks later, Reid press secretary Hafen was in the race and the senator was making fundraising calls on her behalf.

Porter still has a seven-figure lead in cash but now he has to worry in a district that the last numbers showed had only four - yes four - more Republicans than Democrats out of 341,000 voters.

What Porter needs to do: Make the district believe he is not a rubber stamp for the national GOP, whose ratings continue to fall. Brag about pork. Try to avoid getting engaged - do what he does best during elections, which is being invisible.

What Hafen needs to do: Beg Reid to raise more money for her. Keep pounding Porter as being part of the unpopular GOP Congress. Hope the Democratic wave hits here and carries her over the top.

Rating: Lean Porter

State Senate

The combatants: Eleven seats are up; Republicans have a 12-9 advantage.

The dynamic: Both parties are focusing the action on two seats - those held by GOP Sens. Sandra Tiffany and Barbara Cegavske. Both have serious primary and general election opponents. Both, though, are tireless campaigners in districts with significant, although not prohibitive, GOP registration advantages.

The Democrats would seem to have a better chance against Tiffany because of a pending ethics complaint, but Cegavske has the more experienced primary opponent.

Rating: Slight lean GOP control Assembly

The combatants: All 42 seats are up; Democrats have a 26-16 advantage.

The dynamic: As usual, there will be significant turnover in the lower house because of retiring or ambitious lawmakers. This year, about one-fifth of the Assembly is not returning voluntarily; now the question is how many will be forcibly retired. There are only a handful of seats - usually a dozen or fewer - that are really in play, and the Republicans have to be worried about Speaker-in-Waiting Barbara Buckley obtaining a veto-proof (28 seats) majority. It could happen.

Rating: Lock Democratic control, lean veto-proof control.

Clark County Commission, District E

The combatants: Incumbent Myrna Williams, Assemblywoman Chris Giunchigliani.

The dynamic: In many ways, the most fascinating race of the season. An incumbent who got onto the commission by ousting a venerable incumbent now sees the situation reversed. They served together in the Assembly but this will be no holds barred. Giunchigliani has the energy and grass-roots abilities while Williams has all the money and almost all the consultants.

What Williams needs to do: Hope that the G-Sting stink doesn't carry over. Walk the district, solidify her base. Pummel Giunchigliani with all her money.

What Giunchigliani needs to do: Walk the district a few times. Get enough money to pound Williams. Don't make any mistakes.

Rating: Slight lean Williams

Clark County Commission, District F

The combatants: Incumbent Lynette Boggs-McDonald. School Board member Susan Brager.

The dynamic: Boggs-McDonald bludgeoned David Goldwater from Day One in 2004 and had much more money than he did - and only won by 4 percentage points in a district that has a significant Democratic voter edge. So she could be in trouble, theoretically? Yes, theoretically.

Brager doesn't have Goldwater's baggage but will she have the all-out support of the Culinary Union, and can she raise any money?

What Boggs-McDonald needs to do: Point out how "well respected" the School Board is. Not mention G-Sting. Campaign as only she can do.

What Brager needs to do: Make the County Commission responsible for all the world's ills. Get the Culinary motivated. Not talk about the School Board.

Rating: Solid lean Boggs-McDonald

Sheriff

The combatants: Undersheriff Doug Gillespie, ex-cop Bill Conger, current cops Gordon Martines and Ron Williams, many others.

The dynamic: Gillespie has been anointed by Young, but Conger is a former Young appointee and could keep Williams or Martines from the general.

Gillespie will have all the Establishment money and no one else will raise much. Gillespie is a pro but not politically inclined.

Rating: Strong lean Gillespie

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