Wednesday, May 3, 2006 | 9:58 a.m.
At this time a dozen years ago, the idea of Democratic stalwart Jim Bilbray losing his seat in Congress and the party losing control of the Assembly was inconceivable.
Bilbray was a lock for re-election, facing some unknown veterinarian. The Democrats held 29 of the 42 Assembly seats. No one thought it possible.
But because history has recorded John Ensign vanquishing Bilbray by 1,436 votes, and the Republicans winning joint control of the Assembly (an unprecedented 21-21 tie), now is the time to start thinking about the inconceivable this year.
The story of 2006 may be a mirror image of 1994, when the Republican Revolution carried Newt Gingrich to the speakership in Washington, D.C., Lynn Hettrick to the joint speakership in Carson City and now-Sen. Ensign to a remarkable upset that launched his career. Those results occurred because of a complex confluence of events, but one factor stands out 12 years later: turnout.
Disgust with President Bill Clinton was high after the failed health care plan and the 1993 tax increase. Democrats sat on their hands and watched as the course of history was irrevocably changed, here and nationally.
So this year, as President Bush's popularity ratings make the Clinton numbers in '94 look positively robust, it's no wonder national pundit Charlie Cook wrote this week: "There is growing evidence that Republicans will face a voter turnout problem in the November midterm elections."
Those words should be chilling to Republicans and give buoyant Democrats hope that 2006 may be a watershed year. The question in Nevada and across America is how much endemic political factors can blunt or enhance national waves.
"History tells us that when one party is either complacent or disillusioned, and the other party is highly motivated, agitated or angry, the results can be devastating to the former while providing boundless opportunities for the latter," Cook writes.
The national oracle recently paid for polling by a joint Democratic-Republican firm (RT Strategies) that found ominous news for Republicans among 1,003 respondents nationally. Consider these three excerpts from Cook's report:
So could this mean that Rep. Jon Porter could lose to Tessa Hafen and that Regent Jill Derby might defeat the GOP nominee in the race for Jim Gibbons' seat? Inconceivable!
Could this mean that the Republicans could, for the first time since 1991, lose control of the state Senate as Democrats only need to switch two seats (and they have two in mind in Barbara Cegavske and Sandra Tiffany)?
Inconceivable!
Could Republicans not only lose their constitutional office hegemony but also hemorrhage so much that they will be lucky to hold half of the six seats? Inconceivable!
Or is it?
The ironies vis-a-vis 1994 abound.
Now Ensign is the lock for re-election - although even a tsunamilike Democratic tide probably can't carry Jack Carter to an upset reminiscent of the one Ensign pulled off 12 years ago.
Two Republicans who came to power in the shocking GOP near-takeover of the Assembly in 1994 - then-Co-Speaker Lynn Hettrick and Co-Speaker Pro Tem Tiffany may both disappear come Election Day. Hettrick isn't running, and Tiffany, facing an ethics flogging, is in trouble.
And the largest irony of all is this one: If the Democrats take the state Senate, Dina Titus, who has toiled for more than a decade as minority leader of the upper house, likely will miss her chance to become majority leader because she has become governor or because she has been overthrown by an ambitious colleague.
It is not inconceivable.
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