Jeff Haney on why, for bettors, the big story is the line movement in the LSU-UCLA matchup

Friday, March 31, 2006 | 7:11 a.m.

For fans of college basketball, the biggest story of the Final Four has been 11th-seeded George Mason's unlikely run to Indianapolis.

For gamblers, the biggest story might be the equally surprising point-spread move in Saturday's game between UCLA and LSU.

UCLA, a No. 2 seed coming off a mild upset against top-seeded Memphis, opened as a 1 1/2-point favorite against fourth-seeded LSU at Pinnacle, a major offshore sports book, before the game hit the boards as a pick 'em at most Las Vegas casinos.

Since then, gamblers have been backing LSU with their money as if they had access to this coming Sunday's newspaper.

The Tigers have been bet up to as high as a 2 1/2-point favorite in Las Vegas - quite a significant shift in a game that was attracting more action than Saturday's other semi- final between George Mason and Florida, according to Pinnacle oddsmaker Simon Noble.

But that news was welcomed by a couple of prominent Las Vegas gamblers who favored the Bruins in the game anyway.

"I (originally) had UCLA going to the final against Connecticut, so I'm sticking with them," professional handicapper Scott Spreitzer said. "I grabbed some (UCLA) once it hit 2 1/2, and figured I'd take some more if goes up to 3.

"I see this as a very close game, and I think even if UCLA loses, they will take it down to the wire."

Every half-point in the betting line carries some value, especially in a game oddsmakers project to play out as low-scoring, Spreitzer said. The "total," or over/under, in the game stands at 121 to 122 points at Las Vegas betting shops.

UCLA Coach Ben Howland is known for emphasizing defense, and his team has reflected his philosophy throughout the tournament.

"Obviously, UCLA's defense has been incredible," Spreitzer (online at jimfeist.com) said.

The Bruins held Memphis to a season low in points in their 50-45 victory Saturday, limiting the Tigers to a .315 shooting percentage. In beating Gonzaga 73-71 in the previous round - a game in which UCLA failed to cover as a 3 1/2-point favorite - the Bruins' defense clamped down in the second half, outscoring Gonzaga 44-29.

"Also, LSU hasn't been shooting well," Spreitzer said. In the Tigers' previous two games, "Duke and Texas were able to hold them far below their usual shooting totals. I'm kind of happy a lot of other people are on LSU."

Handicapper and radio personality Dave Cokin feels the same way.

"As far as I'm concerned, (the line) can keep on going up," said Cokin of KBAD 920-AM (ESPN Radio). His show is 1 to 3 p.m. weekdays.

"LSU is kind of a popular team right now, and I can understand why - (freshman forward Tyrus) Thomas and Glen 'Big Baby' Davis have looked really good, and a lot of people are looking at how dominant they've been in the paint.

"UCLA hasn't set the world on fire ... but what people are overlooking is how well they are playing defensively."

No. 3 seed Florida is favored by 5 1/2 to 6 points Saturday against George Mason, and Spreitzer said he'll have "a small piece" of the Gators, who figure to match up well against a GMU team that goes only six players deep.

Spreitzer recommended a play on George Mason in its 86-84 upset Sunday as an 8-point underdog against UConn - but that bet was against the overconfident Huskies as much as on the Patriots, he said.

"The thing I didn't like about Connecticut was that all season long they relied on their talent, almost to the point where they thought they could simply turn it on and off at will," Spreitzer said.

"Another problem for George Mason is that they're going to have to play an away game after essentially being at home (in Washington, D.C.). I expect that will make a difference."

Cokin, currently focusing much of his energy on analyzing exhibition baseball games in preparation for an assault on the sports books once the regular season begins, said the point spread in the George Mason-Florida game appeared about right to him.

One factor likely in the Patriots' favor, however, will be the "underdog mentality" that served them so well against UConn, Cokin said.

"That's become a common theme throughout sports," Cokin said. "Any time a team knows it's the underdog, it can get motivated by saying, 'Oh, they're not showing us any respect.' "