Jeff Haney reports on the myriad proposition bets sports books have already posted for the coming baseball season

Monday, March 27, 2006 | 7:24 a.m.

A sampling of 2006 baseball season propositions (odds subject to change).

Regular-season "mosts," by any player (Las Vegas Hilton odds)

Home runs: over/under 48 1/2

RBIs: over/under 145 1/2

Runs: over/under 129 1/2

Hits: over/under 218 1/2

Stolen bases: over/under 61

Doubles: over/under 51 1/2

Triples: over/under 15 1/2

Wins: over/under 21 1/2

Losses: over/under 18 1/2

Saves: over/under 50

Strikeouts: over/under 250 1/2

Complete games: over/under 7 1/2

Which will be highest:

(Caesars Palace odds)

Mariano Rivera strikeouts: 5-1

Kansas City Royals wins: 9-2

Nomar Garciaparra runs: 4-1

Albert Pujols strikeouts: 7-1

Ichiro Suzuki RBIs: 7-1

Johnny Damon walks: 6-1

Jose Reyes steals: 7-1

New York Yankees losses: 3-1

Barry Bonds singles: 25-1

Mark Prior walks allowed: 40-1

Coming off a season in which he belted a league-best 48 home runs, it's no surprise Alex Rodriguez of the New York Yankees is a solid betting favorite to hit the most homers in the major leagues this year, according to odds posted in Las Vegas sports books.

A-Rod is a 9-2 shot at Caesars Palace, 4-1 at the Palms and 7-2 at the Plaza, just three of the casinos offering a variety of seasonlong baseball propositions.

Wagering on the player to hit the most home runs and the pitcher to record the most wins are the most popular proposition bets at the Palms, sports book manager Rich Baccellieri said.

But on the virtual eve of the 2006 regular season, baseball bettors are getting money down on wagers as diverse as which team Barry Bonds will hit his 715th career home run against (Caesars and related properties), who will lead the majors in saves (Las Vegas Hilton) and how many home runs Bonds will finish the season with (over/under 34 at the Plaza).

Along with A-Rod, sluggers with the shortest odds to lead the majors in homers are Albert Pujols of the St. Louis Cardinals (5-1 at Caesars, 10-1 at the Palms), David Ortiz of the Boston Red Sox (6-1 at the Plaza, 8-1 at Caesars and the Palms) and Manny Ramirez of the Boston Red Sox (7-1 at Caesars, 12-1 at the Plaza, 16-1 at the Palms).

Last season's overall champ, Andrew Jones of the Atlanta Braves, can be had at 14-1 at the Palms. Jones ripped 51 homers a year ago, but baseball experts and oddsmakers expect him to return to earth in 2006: The Hilton, which offers over/under wagering on the home run totals of more than 20 individual players, set Jones' total at 37.

The Hilton also offers over/unders on the season win totals of about 20 starting pitchers, ranging from Johan Santana of the Minnesota Twins (17) to Greg Maddux of the Chicago Cubs (12). Santana is also a heavy favorite to record the most strikeouts, according to Caesars odds.

For wagering on the home run king, the Palms has odds on 48 players plus a "field" (all others); the Plaza lists 28 players and a field; and Caesars has 49 players and a field.

Caesars' 49th candidate, however, appears to be a novelty choice: good-hitting pitcher Dontrelle Willis of the Florida Marlins is listed at 1,000-1. That's the equivalent of putting UNLV on the board in wagering to win the college football national championship. Those tickets serve as fun souvenirs for fans, but that's about it.

The theoretical hold rate, or "house edge" - the amount of money, expressed as a percentage, that the casino expects to keep after paying out winning wagers - is typically quite high on exotic wagers such as individual seasonlong baseball props.

In betting on the home run race, it works out to about 43 percent at the Plaza, 45 percent at the Palms and 53 percent at Caesars.

If they're going to let the casino hold their money all baseball season, effectively earning six months' interest on it, most bettors insist on a greater possible reward - and so they look for live long shots on the board.

A few intriguing possibilities:

Bettors have pounded most of the value out of this one already, but Ryan Howard of the Philadelphia Phillies is a top candidate to have a breakout season. The Baseball Prospectus 2006 projects that Howard will hit 41 homers in his first full major league season. His odds have dropped to 12-1 at Caesars and 15-1 at the Palms, but are still 20-1 at the Plaza. (All odds are subject to change by the minute; always double-check before wagering.)

His teammate Mark Teixeira is a more likely candidate - and a much heavier favorite - but Hank Blalock of the Texas Rangers just turned 25, plays in a hitters' ballpark and can be found at 60-1 at the Palms.

Travis Hafner of the Cleveland Indians lacks the name recognition of some of his fellow stars, but he hit 33 home runs last year and is 50-1 at the Palms.