Sunday, March 26, 2006 | 7 a.m.
Cities that may lose a team:
Miami: Baseball's Marlins have threatened to relocate unless a new stadium is built. Team officials reportedly have met with as many as six other cities, including Las Vegas, San Antonio and Portland.
Pittsburgh: The NHL's Penguins want a new arena. Some analysts say while they do not expect the current ownership to move the team, without a new arena, the franchise could be sold to a group that would look elsewhere.
Sacramento: The NBA's Kings also want a new arena. Gavin Maloof, whose family owns the team, insists the team will stay put, but without an arena deal, speculation persists.
Orlando: The NBA's Magic want a new arena.
Seattle: The NBA's Supersonics want a new arena.
New Orleans: NBA and NFL teams were displaced by Hurricane Katrina. And while they are scheduled to move back into repaired facilities, until the teams actually return, their future will remain a source of speculation.
Oakland: Baseball's A's have been on the short list of teams thought to be headed toward a showdown with their hometown over a new stadium.
Minneapolis: Baseball's Twins, mentioned in the past as a candidate for elimination from the league, are another small-market team looking for a new stadium.
Cities looking for a team:
San Antonio: The city's mayor is pushing for an NFL franchise, and the top Bexar County elected official, a former San Antonio mayor himself, is leading an effort to land a Major League Baseball franchise.
Portland: City leaders and citizen groups have been actively working to land a Major League Baseball team for years. City leaders also are interested in acquiring an NHL team, which could play in the same arena now home to the NBA's Trail Blazers.
Oklahoma City: Currently the temporary home of the NBA's New Orleans Hornets, Oklahoma City, city leaders believe, is next in line for a franchise, whether through expansion or relocation. The arena that is the Hornets' temporary home was built to NHL standards, allowing city leaders to go after either an NBA or NHL franchise.
Kansas City: To boost its chances, the community is building an NBA- and NHL- ready arena.
Monterrey, Mexico: Often included on the short list of cities that could land a baseball team.
San Jose: Thought to be in the running for an NBA franchise that could share the arena with their NHL franchise. Also viewed as relocation target for baseball's Oakland A's.
Los Angeles: The NFL wants back in the nation's No. 2 media market. And Angelanos are tired of having to look south to Anaheim for their NFL fix.
For all that Las Vegas has going for it, it remains, in many ways, a town still lacking acceptance as a big-league city.
Yes, it's an international icon, one of the fastest-growing major cities in America and home to a business that lures tens of millions of tourists who spend billions here annually.
And yet, Las Vegas seldom gets mentioned in the same breath - and even more rarely is accorded the same respect - as other major cities roughly its size such as Portland, Denver or Seattle.
One way to start changing that is to simply become big-league - in sports.
Nothing confers major-league status on a city quicker than being home to a major-league sports franchise, a fact signifying that, in at least in one significant way, a city has climbed to the top tier.
"For us, it would be the final step toward status as a major American city," said UNLV history professor Hal Rothman, a widely respected expert on Las Vegas. "We're already a major city, but this would be the icing on the cake."
Indeed, if Las Vegas is ever to become known for being more than a place where people come to gamble and enjoy a little bawdy fun in the sun, it may be because of another kind of game played here.
"I look at it as a way to galvanize the community," said Las Vegas Mayor Oscar Goodman. Ever the civic booster and cheerleader, the mayor added: "We're a big-league city, but we don't have a big-league team."
Goodman is determined to fill in that blank line on his city's resume.
He is especially bullish on Las Vegas' prospects for landing a National Basketball Association franchise - a possibility that, based on his conversations with team owners and others, he optimistically estimates could occur within three years.
The mayor also is in frequent contact with Major League Baseball executives, but terms his city's current chances there as "very nebulous."
The NFL, with its eight-game home regular season, seems perhaps the best fit for Las Vegas - but also is the league that appears most adamantly opposed to having a franchise here. And National Hockey League officials have not spoken with the mayor for years.
But in a city that loves odds, Las Vegas is about to get two solid opportunities to improve its chances to snare a major-league franchise.
The National Basketball Association 2007 All-Star Game will be played at the Thomas & Mack, and the following year, the Major League Baseball winter meetings will be held here.
Together the two events provide Las Vegas with a showcase that local leaders hope to use to impress many of the sports executives who ultimately will decide whether Las Vegas one day joins their ranks.
The mayor and others, hewing to a best-case scenario, believe that after league executives see first-hand how well Las Vegas stages such events, the leagues will be clamoring to bring a franchise here.
It could, however, turn out another way. Because however much glitz surround the events, however lavishly the executives are entertained or, to turn to one of Goodman's favorite marketing tools, however many showgirls greet them, the events also will give league officials a close-up look at perhaps the biggest obstacle to Las Vegas landing a team: legalized sports gambling.
If the NBA All-Star Game and the baseball meetings give Las Vegas a foot in the door to make its case for a major-league franchise, casinos' sports books are - at least for now - the all-but-immovable object blocking that door from opening any wider.
Today, officials from every major league in sports say gambling is a concern that causes them to keep Las Vegas at arm's length.
The National Football league will not even allow Las Vegas-related ads to air during its games. The pending retirement of current NFL Commissioner Paul Tagliabue, who was unalterably opposed to a franchise in Las Vegas, conceivably could soften the league's attitude - but don't bet on it.
Gambling has been an automatic - and permanent - out in Major League Baseball ever since the so-called Black Sox scandal of 1919. A National Hockey League spokesman said firms with ties to sports gambling are not allowed to do business with the league or its franchises. And the NBA agreed to hold its All-Star Game here only after casinos promised to take that game off the board at their sports books.
Five years ago, Goodman's efforts to land the NBA's Vancouver Grizzlies were tripped up - to what degree is unclear - by the gambling issue. The team ultimately went to Memphis.
Gavin Maloof, whose family's Palms casino does not take bets on NBA games because they also own the Sacramento Kings, emphasizes that NBA Commissioner David Stern is not philosophically opposed to sports gambling - only betting on pro basketball.
"When that changes, then you'll see a franchise in Las Vegas," Maloof predicts.
Boyd Gaming spokesman Rob Stillwell, echoing a common theme, said he doubts that Las Vegas sports books would forgo betting on an entire major league.
More likely, some suggest, is that casinos would adopt a variation of the "UNLV rule" - a voluntary policy used prior to 2001 under which casinos did not accept bets on Nevada college games.
Len Perna, president and CEO of Turnkey Sports & Entertainment, a Philadelphia-based consulting firm, said if a major-league team plays in Las Vegas, strict rules governing "whom athletes can associate with" also may be needed.
Goodman and others, however, argue that Las Vegas need not make any apologies over its sports betting.
"They should be on bended knee thanking us for being the only place that regulates the games, that keeps them honest," Goodman said of the various leagues. "They have to accept that the games will be on the board."
Similarly, MGM Mirage spokesman Alan Feldman said: "The notion that we should even be in this discussion is somewhat offensive, other than the leagues have some hang-up on this."
UNLV professor Rothman detects hypocrisy in the leagues' moralistic stand against having a team play in a city where sports betting is legal and regulated - a view in which he is far from alone.
Nearly every newspaper sports section in America carries the daily betting lines on major-league games, and unregulated Internet gambling sites draw tens of millions of dollars in bets on the Super Bowl and other pro sports events.
"The NFL is a gamblers' league and baseball has a long history with gambling," Rothman said. "Gambling is all around sports."
Goodman's final word to the leagues on the subject: "That's their problem."
But in truth, it also is Las Vegas' problem.
Even if a league decides to accept Vegas as Vegas, several other formidable obstacles complicate the city's quest to secure a major-league franchise - starting with its relatively small media market size.
Although the Las Vegas Valley's population growth has been white-hot in recent years, the expanded 50- to 100-mile radius that most major-league teams regard as their core fan base offers little other than small towns and desert, leaving Las Vegas at a competitive disadvantage.
"We have no suburbs - we're an island," said Don Logan, president of the hometown minor-league baseball team, the 51s.
Of the top professional leagues, only the NFL has teams in markets smaller than Las Vegas - Jacksonville, Buffalo and Green Bay.
According to Nielsen Media Research, Las Vegas is the 48th largest media market in the country. With television contracts propelling teams' revenues, the difference in media market size can mean millions of dollars to a team owner - making the issue a threshold question for Las Vegas or any other city seeking a major-league franchise.
Even some eager to see Las Vegas welcomed to the major-league fraternity concede that the city has not yet crossed that threshold.
"We're what, about 1.6, 1.7 million now?" Las Vegas City Councilman and former minor-league baseball pitcher Larry Brown said, referring to the region's population. "I think we need to be around 2 million. Maybe in three or five years we'll be ready."
Others with ties to the sports business, though, argue that Las Vegas is big enough to support a major-league team, especially if a single franchise would have a monopoly on the region's fan base.
John Mansell, a senior analyst with California-based Kagan Research, specializing in sports issues, notes that Las Vegas' media market size compares favorably with No. 44 Memphis, which has an NBA franchise, and No. 45 Oklahoma City, widely considered a solid contender for a franchise after serving as a temporary home this season to the NBA's New Orleans Hornets, displaced by last summer's Hurricane Katrina.
"But what distinguishes Las Vegas is its rapid growth," Mansell said. "It's the most rapidly growing market in the country. The big minus is that it's still a small market, but historically the small market can support very well one or two teams."
There also is the potential impact of the more than 38 million tourists who visit Las Vegas annually.
Lou Weisbach, a Chicago-area businessman who was a central figure in the failed effort two years ago to lure the then-Montreal Expos to Las Vegas - the team ended up going instead to Washington, D.C. - said while the local market is relatively small, the steady flow of tourists helps offset that disadvantage.
Tourists probably could be counted on to buy more tickets here than in other cities, Weisbach argues. That, in turn, would enable a franchise to charge more for advertising in and around a stadium or arena, including the multimillion-dollar naming rights, because the ads would be seen by a wider audience, not only local residents, Weisbach said.
Counting on tourists to snap up a sizable portion of tickets, however, seems a problematic assumption.
Some argue that out-of-staters, particularly Southwesterners, might build a weekend trip to Las Vegas around a favorite team's visit.
Others, though, question whether the average Las Vegas tourist, in town for perhaps three or four days, would devote a major portion of his limited time here to attending a game, rather than enjoying the casinos, shows, nightclubs and other nearby sightseeing attractions.
However the market size, population and tourism statistics are analyzed, Las Vegas finds itself competing with larger markets actively seeking teams in every major-league sport.
Both Portland (No. 23 media market), and San Antonio (No. 37), are wooing baseball's Florida Marlins, a team long dissatisfied with its Miami ballpark. Although Marlins' executives also have been in contact with Las Vegas officials, Major League Baseball leaders have indicated to the Marlins that they would resist any effort to move the team to Nevada.
Portland also is on the lookout for an NHL team to share the arena now home to the NBA's Trail Blazers. And Kansas City, Mo., the 31st largest market, is building a new NBA/NHL arena even while shopping for teams to fill it.
Should Las Vegas overcome the gambling and franchise competition hurdles, its effort to attract a team inevitably would come up against another major challenge: money.
With some recent stadium project costs in other cities soaring to close to the half-billion dollar mark, Las Vegas' local governments probably would have to spend tens of millions of dollars, if not more, to help fund the stadium or arena needed to land a team.
Taxpayers' potential price tag is difficult to estimate at this very early stage, because some recent stadium and arena projects across the country have relied almost entirely on public financing while others have been funded primarily with private dollars.
Generally, however, even if a community does not contribute directly to construction costs, substantial public resources are poured into the projects via lucrative tax breaks, the donation of land and the building of new roads and other infrastructure improvements around a new sports facility.
For example, while the New England Patriots' $325 million stadium outside Boston was 100 percent privately funded, taxpayers provided about $70 million for surrounding roads and other infrastructure improvements.
"There's no free card here," said Earl Santee, a senior principal with Kansas City-based HOK Sports, one of the nation's leading sports facility design companies.
At a minimum, Santee explained, teams "are always looking" for cities to provide land and infrastructure improvements. Very seldom, he added, is that all that the teams want.
To generate the public dollars needed for their stadium and arena projects, other cities have relied on sales taxes or, to lessen the burden on local taxpayers, hotel room taxes and car rental fees - charges paid primarily by visitors.
Whether one of those or another public financing mechanism might be used here is uncertain. While extra hotel and car rental taxes are relatively painless for local residents, the local tourism industry might object, arguing that raising the already-high fees could cause conventions to look elsewhere and deter other visitors.
Although Goodman vowed in the past that the city's contribution likely would be limited to donating the land for a new stadium or arena, he since has tempered that pledge.
"I got smart, I'm not going to talk about the expenditure of public funds for a stadium," Goodman said.
An integral part of the public financing question is whether Las Vegas should follow the lead of other cities by building a stadium or arena before having a commitment from any major-league team.
In other words, if you build it, will they come?
Or, possibly a better question: If you don't build it, are you a giant step behind other cities also trying to lure a pro franchise?
These questions are perhaps most relevant to basketball and hockey - where numerous other U.S. cities have arenas ready for a team to move in today - than in baseball, where building a ballpark before landing a team is rare.
The exception is Tampa Bay, which built a baseball stadium in 1990 - five years before the city landed the American League's Devil Rays, and three years before it became home to the NHL's Lightning.
Turnkey Sports CEO Perna, who helped Memphis win its NBA franchise, said that while Las Vegas "is a great market ... I don't see anyone going there without something built for them."
Chicago's Weisbach added: "If Las Vegas already had an arena, the odds are Las Vegas would already have a team."
In Oklahoma City, voters approved a special sales tax in December 1993 to pay for various projects, including a new minor league ballpark, a performing arts center and an arena built to NBA and NHL standards. The arena, called the Ford Center, cost $90 million and opened in June 2002.
For years, city leaders have been lobbying for a major-league franchise. That, combined with having a ready arena, put the city in a fortunate position when tragedy struck New Orleans, leaving the NBA's Hornets (and the NFL's Saints) temporarily without a home.
"After Katrina, we were in a unique position," said Tom Anderson, who oversees Oklahoma City's sports facilities.
After a second season next year in Oklahoma City, the Hornets are to return to New Orleans. To show its gratitude to the city, however, the NBA has committed to have the Hornets play six games in Oklahoma City after the Hornets move back to New Orleans.
"There is no overt effort to steal the team from New Orleans," Anderson said. "But we're proving our marketability to both leagues (the NBA and NHL). David Stern has said we are next in line."
In Kansas City, the $250-million Sprint Center is being built to handle an NBA and an NHL team. However, there is as yet no tenant for the facility, scheduled to be ready for the winter 2007 sports season.
That strategy is familiar to leaders in both New Orleans and Memphis, two cities that used already-built arenas to successfully lure NBA franchises.
In Las Vegas, 51s president Logan has proposed building a new ballpark for his team that could be expanded if and when a major-league team moves here.
Goodman, though, has rejected that suggestion, asserting that "under no circumstances" would he build a stadium or arena before having a commitment from a major-league franchise.
In Las Vegas' failed bid for Major League Baseball's Expos, Weisbach pitched a plan for a $450 million domed stadium behind Bally's on the Strip.
He believes a potential basketball or hockey arena, estimated to cost roughly only half that much, could be built without public funds, in part because non-sporting events could be held there to increase its profitability.
The MGM's Feldman said the business community might oppose any plan earmarking a substantial contribution of public funds towards a sports facility.
"We would be very opposed to having the public pay an excessive amount to get a league in Las Vegas," he said. Local casinos, he noted, have built their own buildings and arenas "without any tax breaks."
So where does that leave Las Vegas as, one week before the Major League Baseball season begins and the NHL and NBA near their playoffs, the city still finds itself sitting on the sidelines?
Although the outcome of cities' bids for major-league teams is as uncertain as the games themselves, many believe it is only a matter of time before a top sports franchise calls Las Vegas home.
"I don't think there's any question Las Vegas will get a major-league professional sports team," said Randy Vataha, a former NFL player who is president of Game Plan LLC, an investment banking and consulting firm specializing in sports-related deals.
"But whether it's three or four years or 10 years, nobody knows," Vataha added. "I don't think any of the leagues are looking to move to Las Vegas now. But my guess is there are a number of owners and prospective owners who would love to move to Las Vegas."
Goodman, meanwhile, frequently says he expects to throw out the first pitch - or perhaps toss the first jump ball at center court - before he leaves office. (This assumes he will run for re-election next year, giving him a five-year window; if not, Hizzoner better start warming up in the bullpen - and burning up the phones to league and team offices.)
Toward that end, Goodman says he speaks almost weekly with top team and league officials and owners, though he usually keeps the specifics to himself - partly to ensure that teams are not using Las Vegas as a negotiating tool.
As rumors of teams looking at Las Vegas have become more frequent in recent years, Goodman has grown increasingly wary of his city being used as a pawn by teams trying to wring more financially lucrative deals out of their current hometowns or other cities. That suspicion has been cast by some, in particular, at the Marlins.
Another Marlins suitor, former San Antonio Mayor Nelson Wolff, now the top elected official in Bexar County government, concedes that it is difficult for cities pursuing new franchises to know where they stand.
"When these things happen, you're not sure if they really want to leave their girlfriend or if they're just dating," he said. "You just have to keep at it."
