Jeff Haney explains why Greg Biffle is favored to win Sunday’s race at Las Vegas Motor Speedway even though he finished 42nd in his last Nextel Cup race

Saturday, March 11, 2006 | 7:30 a.m.

In analyzing Sunday's NASCAR Nextel Cup race at Las Vegas Motor Speedway, handicapper Scott Spreitzer focused much of his attention on a driver who dropped out of his previous race with engine trouble.

Before he ended up with an official up-the-track finish of 42nd place at California Speedway last month, that driver - Greg Biffle, who drives the No. 16 Ford for Roush Racing - had been dominating the action in the Auto Club 500.

His performance was enough to make Biffle a legitimate favorite to win Sunday's UAW-DaimlerChrysler 400 outright as well as the guy to back in head-to-head driver matchups, Spreitzer said.

"Biffle had the best car in California before he blew his engine," Spreitzer said. "I expect him to bounce back, especially considering Las Vegas is a shorter race."

Biffle is listed as a 7-1 co-favorite along with defending champ Jimmie Johnson to win Sunday's race in most Las Vegas betting shops. Among the other top choices are Roush teammates Carl Edwards, Matt Kenseth, Mark Martin and Jamie McMurray; Jeff Gordon of the Hendrick Motorsports team; and Tony Stewart, who drives the No. 20 Chevrolet for Joe Gibbs Racing.

Because of the short odds on Biffle - he opened as high as 10-1 before being bet down - Spreitzer prefers to take a look at him in head-to-head driver matchups, a specialized proposition in which bettors wager on which of two drivers will have a better finish in the race.

Spreitzer said he made his adjustment from concentrating on picking a winner in the race to focusing on driver matchups as motor sports betting evolved and matured in Las Vegas.

"Right around 2001, (Station Casinos oddsmaker) Micah Roberts and some others began paying close attention (to auto racing odds)," Spreitzer said, and those oddsmakers' expertise made the sport tougher for gamblers to beat.

Spreitzer recalls making plays on drivers in the late 1990s to win outright at odds better than 20-1 when he estimated they should have been closer to 12-1 - a juicy overlay by any standard.

"Back then, Las Vegas sports books didn't follow NASCAR that closely," he said.

Today, Spreitzer said, he'll handicap about 36 races a year and make 100 to 110 wagers - 90 percent of which come on head-to-head matchups.

Spreitzer likes the chances of all five Roush drivers, who fared well at California and typically excel on so-called "downforce" tracks - where aerodynamics packages are more important than they are at superspeed-ways - such as Las Vegas. He also likes Stewart (8-1) as a driver "to come from outside the pack" Sunday.

Biffle is paired against Johnson in a featured matchup at several Las Vegas sports books. Another matchup pits the Busch brothers against each other.

Spreitzer, who is online at jimfeist.com, called for oddsmakers to offer exacta and trifecta betting in major NASCAR races, an innovation he considers the next logical development in the evolution of motor sports wagering.

Leroy's sports books have taken a step in that direction, offering "place" (to finish first or second) and "show" (to finish first, second or third) wagering on individual drivers. For example, Biffle was listed at 7-1 to win at Leroy's, 3-1 to place and plus-140 to show.

For several weeks, the Plaza has been offering a proposition that asks if either Duke or Connecticut will win the 2006 men's college basketball championship. Given the performance of those two teams lately, it's no surprise the odds - which had been about even money on either side - now favor the "no" side of the prop.

Bettors can get both Duke and UConn against the rest of the field at a price of plus-140, or a payoff of $1.40 (plus your original stake back) for each $1 wagered.

Bettors can play the "no," essentially taking the rest of the field against Duke and UConn, for a price of minus-170 (risk $1.70 to win $1).

UConn, ranked No. 1 in the both the coaches' poll and the Associated Press poll, was upset by Syracuse on Thursday. Duke, which was No. 1 earlier this season, is No. 3 in both polls. The Blue Devils have lost straight-up to Florida State and North Carolina this month and have failed to cover the point spread in their past four games.

Both teams, along with second-ranked Villanova, will be hoping to secure No. 1 seeds in the tournament in Sunday's bracket selection.