Jeff Haney on why bookies, wise guys will return because ‘year of the favorite’ was a fluke

Friday, March 3, 2006 | 7:47 a.m.

In his sport's golden age, baseball great Ralph Kiner pointed out that home run hitters drive Cadillacs while singles hitters drive Fords.

Henderson-based TV sports prognosticator Wayne Root has updated that old Kinerism to reflect the reality of the modern sports betting scene in Las Vegas.

"Bookmakers and smart handicappers drive Mercedes and Porsches," Root said. "(Average) bettors drive used Chevys. That's the way the world works. That's how they built Vegas."

Root was responding to a downturn in the fortunes of Nevada's sports books over the final two months of this past NFL regular season.

After posting stellar profits in September and October, the state's sports books actually lost $11.3 million in football betting in November. And, according to the most recent set of figures released by the state Gaming Control Board, books lost another $3.3 million in football betting in December.

The culprit was favored teams in NFL games, who covered the point spread at a rate closer to 60 percent than their usual rate of roughly 50 percent this past season. All those Cavalier drivers who make up the "betting public" traditionally bet favorites in the NFL, and end up cashing more tickets on both straight bets and parlays when favorites cover.

"Masses of public bettors, who are generally always wrong, went on a record-setting, bookie-beating eight-week tear in November and December," Root said. "Every smart professional gambler I know got beat during that eight-week period. Virtually every important, and usually stupid, favorite the public bet on won. Every smart dog that professionals bet on lost.

"I've never seen anything like it in my 20-year career."

Root saw the "year of the favorite" as an anomaly rather than a harbinger of some fundamental change in the nature of football betting.

"That can change for one aberration of a season, once every decade or two," said Root, whose handicapping show airs nationwide from Las Vegas on WGN during football season. "But long-term, it cannot change. Next season should be a great one for smart - contrarian - professionals, and bookmakers."

Overall, the football season was profitable for the state's sports books, though figures dropped from the previous season.

From September through December, Nevada sports books won $38 million on football betting, college and NFL combined, according to the Gaming Control Board. That represents a 4.7 percent "hold" rate on a total of $805 million wagered.

By comparison, from September through December 2004, Nevada sports books won $53.4 million, holding 7 percent of the $762 million wagered.

That's a 29 percent drop from 2004 to 2005.

The state's sports books had a similar drop-off in revenue from parlay cards, which are tracked separately.

From September through December, the state's sports books won $11.9 million on parlay cards, down 32 percent from the $17.5 million during the same period in 2004.

Numbers on sports book revenue from the Gaming Control Board are the only such figures available to the public, as individual casinos do not release information on how much money their sports books win or lose. Some sports book officials address results in broad terms; others refuse to speak even in generalities.

Official figures for January are expected to be released by the Gaming Control Board this month.

Tickets are still available for Saturday's Ultimate Fighting Championship card at Mandalay Bay, in which Rich Franklin is nearly a 3-1 betting favorite against David Loiseau in the UFC middleweight championship main event.

In an attractive welterweight bout on the card, "UFC 58: USA vs. Canada," Georges St. Pierre was installed as a 3-2 favorite against BJ Penn.

Franklin of Cincinnati knocked out Evan Tanner to win the organization's middleweight title at UFC 53, and defended his belt with a first-round knockout of Nate Quarry at UFC 56. Loiseau knocked out Tanner last year to establish himself as a leading contender.

Tickets priced at $250 and $350 are still on sale, with $50, $100 and $450 seats at the Events Center sold out.

Handicapper Brent Crow went 5-1 in his final six selections to earn a victory against professional gambler Alan Boston of Las Vegas in the "Beat Boston" college basketball betting contest that concluded last week.

Crow of sportsmemo.com collected the $50,000 prize in the winner-take-all contest sponsored by Leroy's sports books.

Crow's record in the contest's seven weeks was 25-17 (60 percent) against the point spread, while Boston finished 22-20 (52 percent).

Jeff Haney can be reached at 259-4041 or at haney@lasvegassun.com.