Editorial: Iraq optimism on the wane

Thursday, March 2, 2006 | 7:18 a.m.

In his State of the Union speech delivered Jan. 31, President Bush effused his stock optimism on the war in Iraq. He spoke of dramatic military and political successes, of his confidence in the "will of the Iraqi people" and of decreasing U.S. troop levels as Iraqi forces "increasingly take the lead."

He assured Americans that what coalition forces had learned from their nearly three years of experience would lead to victory. "Fellow citizens, we are in this fight to win, and we are winning," Bush said.

Bush struck a different chord Friday, however, after sectarian fighting gripped Iraq after the Thursday explosion that caused heavy damage to a shrine that is sacred to Shiites.

The Los Angeles Times, in its Saturday edition, reported on a speech Bush gave to veterans. The newspaper quoted Bush as saying that the Iraqi people are facing a "moment of choosing." It went on to quote the president as saying that there was still "reason for optimism" but that the coming days would be "difficult and exhausting."

In support of its reporting that the Bush administration was analyzing whether civil war in Iraq would break out despite its policies and the presence of U.S. forces, the paper quoted Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice. She had told reporters that the fighting between Shiite and Sunni Muslims "makes it harder today and perhaps tomorrow" to bring a stable, democratic government to Iraq.

On Tuesday, National Intelligence Director John Negroponte added to the new tone coming from the administration. "If chaos were to descend upon Iraq or the forces of democracy were to be defeated in that country, this would have implications for the rest of the region and, indeed, the world," he told the Senate Armed Services Committee.

Negroponte also told the committee that he is seeing progress in Iraq, but added, "And if we continue to make that kind of progress, yes, we can win in Iraq."

A former ambassador to Iraq, Negroponte is a diplomat who chooses his words carefully. To twice use the word "if" in talking about ultimate U.S. success in Iraq was remarkable. He went on to discuss the consequences of a civil war in Iraq, as if that were a real possibility. He said the whole U.S. purpose in Iraq would be jeopardized and that Arab countries in the region each could align with either Sunnis or Shiites, considerably broadening the violence.

In campaigning for a second term, Bush promised, "I know what I'm doing in Iraq." We certainly hope so.