Jon Ralston gauges the state political climate that by November looks to be too hot even for a survivor like Republican Sen. Sandra Tiffany to survive

Friday, June 30, 2006 | 7:38 a.m.

Of all the races to watch this year - if indeed anyone out there is paying attention during the run-up to the state's first summer primary - none is more fascinating than state Sen. Sandra Tiffany's bid for re-election.

Tiffany, a Republican, is a fearsome campaigner and committed fiscal conservative whose effectiveness has been vitiated over the years by her unmatched ability (please, no nominations of alternatives) to alienate colleagues and special interests. No one has ever written or spoken phrases such as "the beloved Sandra Tiffany" or "that wonderful Sandra Tiffany." Most of the appellations are unmentionable, although one post-session evaluator a few sessions back labeled her the "Queen of Mean."

So this year, when she drew serious primary and general election opposition, Tiffany's politics-of-subtraction approach to her job threatened to bring years of chickens home to roost in Senate District 5.

All of the atmospherics seem right for Tiffany to be plucked from Carson City. She serves the same two-senator district once also represented by her friend and mentor, Ann O'Connell, another tightfisted Republican who was dispatched in a primary in 2004. And I know Ann O'Connell. Ann O'Connell was a legislative icon. Sandra Tiffany is no Ann O'Connell.

Tiffany also signed onto the same $1.6 billion tax bill in 2003 as O'Connell did - it was a gesture of protest against the proposed gross receipts tax, but she, like O'Connell, will have a hard time explaining it to her constituents.

Her primary opponent, businessman John Jackson, drew an immediate endorsement from the state's highest-ranking, nonlame-duck Republican, Sen. John Ensign - another measure of how well liked Tiffany is among the elected elite. And although state Senate Majority Leader Bill Raggio and the caucus did their duty and embraced Tiffany, she has publicly chastised Sir Bill in the past, and he surely would like nothing better than to see Tiffany lose - so long as the Republicans keep the seat.

If those problems and a national Republican depression weren't enough for Tiffany to contend with, a panel of the state Ethics Commission decided in March to move forward against her on 20 potential violations of state laws for using her public position to solicit business for her private enterprise. The case has to do with Tiffany using her legislative title to gain entry with other state officials under the guise of looking into efficiencies and then presenting them with a business pitch for an Internet company she owns.

It is no surprise that Jackson, who already is flooding district mailboxes with pieces, has raised the ethics investigation in his propaganda. And who wouldn't?

Tiffany has responded with the kind of brazen, in-your-face retort for which she is known, telling voters in fliers that she was cleared by the commission in March and that she faced "no punitive action." That's true - on one of 21 counts - and she could not have been punished because the panel did not have that power until a full hearing was held.

Details, details.

Tiffany is lucky that the actual hearing, originally scheduled before the election, now has been pushed back to December. Serendipity intervened on her behalf when commissioners, partly because of the number of witnesses that needed to be flown in and the possible weeklong hearing, had to apply for $40,000 in extra funds. The Gang of 63, fearing too many such probes, has never allowed the panel more than a threadbare budget.

Then, Tiffany's lawyer, John Arrascada, showed the commission that he had a full trial calendar until after November, which was a deus ex machina for the senator and allows her to put the decision off until December.

Jackson can still use the issue - and I assure you he will - and so can her general opponent, Joyce Woodhouse, should Tiffany survive Aug. 15. But this substantially reduces the proximate danger.

Should Tiffany, ever the survivor, withstand both challenges, she will still have to face the ethics proceeding and explain much damning evidence. If she fails that test, Arrascada will come in handy because the next step would be possible impeachment.

His last high-profile client was named Kathy Augustine, the impeached controller now running for treasurer. Maybe that's why Tiffany hired him.