Jeff Haney examines the trends on futures bets for NFL teams’ over/under win totals, which can be traced to ‘educated wise guys’ hitting the books early

Friday, June 23, 2006 | 7:18 a.m.

Jay Kornegay, sports book director at the Las Vegas Hilton, calls them "educated wise guys."

They're sophisticated, often professional, gamblers.

And even if you won't feel inspired to bet NFL regular-season victory over / unders until close to Labor Day, it can be worthwhile to see which teams those educated wise guys are backing at the betting windows.

Yes, already.

Since the Hilton posted season win totals for all 32 NFL teams in April, there have been significant moves in the betting lines attached to a half-dozen of them.

In each case, the adjustment in the line was driven by "sharp" money rather than bets by recreational gamblers or casual fans, Kornegay said.

"Most of the action from the general public this time of year is in the form of small bets," Kornegay said. "What we're seeing is educated, wise-guy action. The general public doesn't really get into football betting mode until the start of the preseason."

Among the teams that have attracted the most early action:

Contrary to popular belief, bettors weren't simply banking on an extended hot streak for Carolina sports teams after the Hurricanes won the Stanley Cup. More likely, they were looking at the Panthers' fifth-ranked defense and key additions such as wide receiver Keyshawn Johnson. The Panthers outscored their opponents 391 to 259 last season, a differential that traditionally equates to about 11 wins in the NFL, so their 11-5 record wasn't exactly a fluke. It doesn't hurt that division rival Tampa Bay is expected to sustain a letdown after winning 11 games last season: The Bucs' posted total for 2006 is eight victories.

"That's typical," he said. "The Packers are definitely a team we receive money on for the success side - meaning the over in this kind of betting - year after year. That's true whether they had four wins the previous year or 12 wins."

"There's some debate on how successful (new starting quarterback Philip) Rivers is going to be in his first year," Kornegay said.

The Pittsburgh Steelers' total of 10 wins had been holding steady until the wager was temporarily taken off the board after quarterback Ben Roethlisberger's motorcycle crash last week.