Jeff Haney dispels a popular theory on betting NFL champions

Friday, July 14, 2006 | 7:40 a.m.

A classic NFL wagering strategy advises betting against the winner of the Super Bowl early in the subsequent regular season.

Not only will the point spreads in those games be artificially inflated because of the hype surrounding the champ, according to the strategy, but the Super Bowl winner's opponents will be especially motivated to score an upset.

It's time to put this theory to rest.

In his superb 2001 book "Sharp Sports Betting," gambling authority Stanford Wong reported the strategy was a consistent money-earner from 1985 to 2000. Betting against the champion in the season's first six weeks yielded a record of 52-36-1 (59 percent) against the point spread in that period, according to Wong's research. (He considered bye weeks "no action.")

Since then, however, the theory has been a consistent money-burner - probably because the sports betting marketplace caught up with and adjusted to the trend.

Since 2001, it has yielded a record of 14-15-1 against the spread (48 percent).

Opening betting lines on the Super Bowl champ Pittsburgh Steelers' early games seem to confirm the theory has lost its luster.

The Las Vegas Hilton sports book, as it does annually, has posted betting lines on 80 NFL "games of the year," five each week from Weeks 2 through 17 for early wagering. (Betting is available on the entire Week 1 card.)

Before the lines were temporarily taken off the board due to quarterback Ben Roethlisberger's motorcycle crash, the Steelers had been installed as an underdog in two early "games of the year." That's some inflated line.

Pittsburgh was a 1-point underdog against the Jacksonville Jaguars on Sept. 18 and a 2-point underdog to the San Diego Chargers on Oct. 8.

Lines on the Steelers games are expected to be re-posted when Roethlisberger's status becomes clearer.

Also noted:

The round proposition asks whether the fight will last its scheduled full 12 rounds, with a price of minus-160 on "will go 12" and plus-130 on "won't go."

In the knockout / decision proposition, Mosley to win by decision is a co-favorite at odds of 8-5 along with Mosley by knockout. Vargas by decision is listed at 27-10, with Vargas by knockout a 9-2 shot. A 12-round draw is 15-1 at the MGM, which also offers a prop on the exact round of a knockout by either man at odds ranging from 12-1 to 22-1.

In the first fight Feb. 25 at Mandalay Bay, Mosley was a slightly shorter favorite of minus-170.

Caesars has a selection of creative propositions on the British Open, including the winner's country of origin. The United States is favored at minus-350, followed by South Africa at plus-250, Australia at 7-1, England at plus-1800, Scotland at 35-1, Wales at 60-1 and all others at 6-1.

You can also bet on the first letter of the winner's name. Options range from "T, U, V, W, X, Y or Z" at 3-1 to "J, K, or L" at 12-1.

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