Sunday, Jan. 22, 2006 | 9:25 a.m.
Brian Greenspun is editor of the Las Vegas Sun. His column appears on Sunday and on occasion during the week.
Like I didn't have enough to worry about. ...
We all have plenty in our lives that concern us. Whether it is our credit card debt, our mortgage payments, the tenuous job situation, our kids and their educational opportunities or, worse, what can be some pretty ugly life issues, most of the time we are able to climb on top of the problems and sort them out. The other ones we leave to our leaders to figure out. On that front there has been plenty to keep us up nights.
Suddenly it has gotten much worse. That is if you consider nuclear war a cause for concern.
Let me share that which is troubling me. It started with a cigarette. I noticed a friend of mine lighting one up the other night, which was most unusual because I didn't know he smoked. He didn't. He just started. To be clear, he started on 9/11 and quit. Katrina knocked him off the wagon and he quit again. With no obvious calamity to trigger the reflexive reaction this time, I asked the obvious question: What's wrong?
I got the obvious answer and it scared the heck out of me.
Simply put, it is Iran. Let's complicate it by mixing in the national and international security priorities of countries such as Israel, Russia, China and the United States. Throw in the pan-European concerns of the European Union and most of the other countries on the planet, and you have the makings of a major disaster scenario. And this ain't television. It is as real as it gets.
First, let's remember what got us into Iraq what seems like ages ago. Remember the "weapons of mass destruction" cry. They didn't exist in Saddam Hussein's Iraq -- thank goodness -- but the rest of the world remembers our cry of wolf. There is something else to remember, all the way back to 1981.
When Israel believed it was the primary target of a soon-to-be nuclear-armed Iraq, it made a pre-emptive strike on Iraq's nuclear capability and destroyed Saddam's dream of entering the exclusive club of nuke owners, most of whom weren't mad enough to actually use their hellish arsenals.
When U.S. troops and coalition forces invaded Iraq during Desert Storm, the whole world was thankful that Israel acted when she did and the way she did. It saved our own people from a nuclear response courtesy of Saddam.
Fast forward to 2006, here's what we have. Iran hates Israel, the United States and any other country that believes in freedom, progress and the ability of people to be themselves. That covers most of the countries on this planet. Iran is one of the wealthiest countries in the world, especially since oil soared past $60 a barrel and worldwide consumption refused to go down. In short, they are rolling in our friends' dough. Iran, by all accounts, is a very short time away from nuclear weapons.
Did I mention that before? Iran, unlike Iraq, will have nukes soon if it doesn't have them already. Let's guess what those nutjobs will do with their newfound destructive capabilities. Make good on their promise to wipe Israel from the map? Destroy the "Great Satan?" That's us, by the way.
Reduce Russia to rubble because it isn't treating its own Muslim terrorists very nicely? Chuck a few A-bombs at China because it, too, isn't very tolerant of people who want to enslave the largest population on Earth? You get the picture, right?
At the same time, Ariel Sharon, the rock-hard and doubly tough prime minister of Israel is pretty much down for the count, leaving untested Israeli leadership scrambling for credibility and much-needed public support. And, talk about timing, the Palestinian Authority will soon start counting votes for its leadership in which the militant, anti-Israel Hamas is the odds-on favorite to win the hearts and minds of the Palestinian people, many of whom are itching for an excuse to start killing wantonly again inside Israel.
And, just in case you thought it relatively safe to come out from under the covers, the rest of the Arab world is just waiting to see which side will have the strength and, therefore, determine which way those countries must jump.
Remember that Israel blew up Osirak in 1981 and the whole world condemned her -- before they thanked her just 10 years later. She justified her attack with intelligence that she possessed and most others did not believe, intelligence that was dead-on.
Three years ago the United States invaded Iraq based on intelligence that we claimed the whole world had -- which turned out to be wrong. And now, with Israel worried -- practically to death -- that any day now Iran will have the nukes necessary to wipe the tiny Jewish state into oblivion, the talk has turned to pre-emption once again.
This time, though, the United States. and everyone else is pleading for restraint. First it was to give diplomacy a chance to work -- which it didn't -- and now to give the U.N. Security Council a chance to react -- which it may, but not hardly in a timely fashion. So here is where it gets dicey.
By most estimates, we are less than three months from Iran's nuclear capability, which means that Israel will be in the extreme danger zone by April, if not sooner. She cannot wait until after a nuclear explosion to react.
Remember the mushroom cloud thing we kept hearing? This time it is real. Couple that with an untested but ready-to-be-tested Israeli leadership and you have every reason to believe that Israel will not wait to retaliate. She will strike first.
On the other side is the United States urging restraint. We are joined by Russia, China, the European Union and everyone else who does business with Iran and who does not want a war to erupt with what may appear to be an obvious nuke-tipped conclusion. So, they are imploring Israel to stand down in the face of annihilation, which is a hard case to make with a people who would rather die of old age than at the whim of a madman.
And now our case for self-control just got weaker. With the whole sane world running to the United Nations for some Security Council action, they are by definition admitting that Iran will have nukes in a very short time. And if they cannot get United Nations action almost immediately -- which is problematic as we all know -- there is little persuasive power amongst the group that can keep Israel from acting in a most decisive manner.
And the only people who will blame Israel will be those Arab countries who have been looking for a way to unite against our only true democratic ally in the Middle East. And if they do, guess where the United States will be? Then the question is with what since our armed forces are a bit busy in Iraq with no end in sight there. The inability to field the armed troops we may need could put other options front and center. Options that could change the face of war as we have come to fight it.
Unless sanity prevails in Iran -- which is not very likely -- you can see why my friend started smoking again and why I am worried sick.
How are the rest of you feeling about now?
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