Columnist Jon Ralston: Analyzing the results of the latest poll for top Nevada races, but takes their findings with a grain of salt

Friday, Jan. 20, 2006 | 7:26 a.m.

Jon Ralston hosts the news discussion program Face to Face with Jon Ralston on Las Vegas ONE and also publishes the daily e-mail newsletter RalstonFlash.com. His column for the Las Vegas Sun appears Sunday, Wednesday and Friday. Ralston can be reached at 870-7997 or through e-mail at ralston@vegas.com.

Polls can mean a lot during campaigns. Or they can mean nothing at all.

But the mere release of them will always have an impact, whether or not the snapshot is blurry, whether or not the pollster is credible, whether or not the numbers make intuitive sense.

So what to make of the latest Zogby Interactive poll, which shows somewhat bizarre gubernatorial race numbers but somewhat more conventional Senate contest results?

Zogby is an international firm that tracks races across the country, using a method whereby folks register on a Web site and then are polled. The method is controversial, but Zogby does weight the results by region, party, age, race, religion and gender to try to accurately capture the electorate's mood, and his results in many states were dead-on in previous cycles.

The latest survey in Nevada, taken this month of 517 statewide voters and with a 4 percent margin of error, has provocative results for the gubernatorial candidates and shows Sen. John Ensign robustly headed for re-election.

If the poll is to be believed, Mayor Oscar Goodman would do well to focus on governor -- a job he seems to have no interest in holding -- rather than U.S. Senate -- a job he occasionally covets. Remember, though, as you look at the numbers, that this is one poll at one point in time, with the most interesting aspect its relative findings to the previous efforts by Zogby last year:

* Governor: Zogby's most recent poll shows Democrat Dina Titus, the state Senate minority leader, holding onto her claim of viability against GOP frontrunner Jim Gibbons. Titus was behind by 8 points in September, 3 points in October and now by 6 -- 46 percent to 40 percent. Her opponent, Henderson Mayor Jim Gibson, is only down by 5 points -- 42-37 -- as opposed to 6 and 9 in the earlier polls.

Gibbons has not pulled away from either candidate, although his 46 percent against Titus is his high watermark. In a vacuum, then, it still appears either Democrat could give Gibbons a race.

Of course, nothing in politics happens in a vacuum and Gibbons will soon have about as much money on hand as the other two combined, partly with the help of the George Bush who does not have the plummeting poll numbers.

Bush is coming this month to raise about a quarter-million for Gibbons.

Zogby didn't poll the primary between Titus and Gibson, but he matched them up against the other GOP contenders, who also appear viable in that proverbial vacuum.

Lt. Gov. Lorraine Hunt is in a dead heat with Titus and crushes Gibson (44-33) -- that latter result seems strange since previous Zogby matchups also showed Gibson in a statistical tie with the lieutenant governor. The survey was taken when Hunt was making her announcement last week, although that balloon-festooned event did not get much news coverage.

Titus and Gibson also are in a horse race with state Sen. Bob Beers, whose numbers have slightly improved since the previous Zogby polls. What that indicates -- along with the other numbers -- is that barring any revelations, the Republican candidate will get about 40 percent, the Democratic candidate will get about 40 percent -- give or take -- and the campaign really is taking place for 15 to 20 percent of the voters out there. You know who you are.

As for Goodman, he is in dead heats with all three GOP contenders -- all of the matchups are within the 4 percent margin of error. His numbers, among all the candidates, have slipped since October, when he had significant single-digit leads over the Republicans. Now, Gibbons is destroying him in rural and Northern Nevada, which will be the key for Goodman in any statewide race. Speaking of which. ...

* Senate: Zogby's numbers on Ensign-Goodman have fluctuated going back to September, when the incumbent had a 10-point lead, then in October when it was a dead heat and now the new numbers, which show Ensign up 52-38. Those numbers are similar to figures obtained by Ensign's pollster, Glen Bolger, according to the senator.

(Ensign also crushes presidential son Jack Carter, 51-34.) Could Goodman beat Ensign? Of course. But if this poll is right, governor is a better bet for His Honor.

Then again, the poll could mean nothing except how voters felt at a given moment, far from November and without the benefit of the positively uplifting campaigns to come.