Columnist Jeff Haney: Favoring Morales against Pacquiao in a competetive super featherweight fight

Friday, Jan. 20, 2006 | 8:40 a.m.

If you were paying attention, and if you acted quickly enough, you could have locked in a profit betting on Saturday's super featherweight fight between Erik Morales and Manny Pacquiao.

On the opening line at host property Wynn Las Vegas, Morales was an underdog of plus-115 (risk $1 to win $1.15, plus your original stake back).

At the same time during that early betting period, a major offshore sports book had Pacquiao as an underdog of plus-105 (risk $1 to win $1.05).

Gamblers call this a "scalping" opportunity, or betting both sides of a match in a way that guarantees a profit.

While those situations are terrific for bettors, I've always believed they place extra pressure on a pure handicapper who's trying to predict the outcome of the event.

Fairly or not, I think you end up looking extra dumb if you predict the wrong side in a "no vigorish" fight -- meaning one in which you could have made money even if you don't know a left hook from Dr. Hook.

Still, I'll give it a shot and take Morales, the three-time world champ from Tijuana, Mexico, in Saturday's rematch at the Thomas & Mack Center. The fight is a pick 'em on the current betting line (risk $1.10 to win $1 on either fighter).

Morales won the first bout last March, 115-113 on all three judges' scorecards.

The scoring was fair, although Morales won at least a couple of his rounds more convincingly than Pacquiao of Kibawe, Philippines, won his.

Yes, Morales is coming off a loss to Zahir Raheem in September. But Morales also entered his first fight against Pacquiao off a loss, to rival Marco Antonio Barrera, and rebounded impressively.

And Raheem uses a much trickier style than hyperaggressive Pacquiao.

More significantly, Morales returns to the 130-pound division Saturday after stepping up to lightweight to face Raheem.

Because Pacquiao's optimal fighting weight is 126 pounds, I figure Morales will enter the ring as the physically bigger and stronger fighter. Morales has a two-inch height advantage (5 feet 8 to 5 feet 6) and a five-inch reach advantage (72 inches to 67). It will be a challenge for Pacquiao to inflict much serious damage.

In the first fight, Pacquiao was hampered by a deep cut near his right eye that he sustained in the fifth round. The fighters split the first four rounds on the judges' cards, though, so it's not like Pacquiao had been pitching a shutout.

I expect plenty of action in the ring Saturday night, and I expect Morales to emerge victorious.

* * *

Around this time last year, I opposed college basketball expert Alan Boston one week in a head-to-head competition picking games against the point spread.

After we made our selections, Boston, a professional gambler, was gracious enough to compliment my presentation, saying that I was well prepared and made a nice showing -- for an amateur.

But on the morning of the games, I knew I was in trouble. The point spreads in the games that Boston picked had moved more than any other lines on the betting board -- indicating heavy betting action, most likely by "wise guys," or pro bettors, on the sides that Boston selected. (The lines on my games remained disappointingly stagnant.)

This year, Boston is at it again. Facing professional handicapper Brent Crow in the eight-week "Beat Boston" college basketball betting contest sponsored by Leroy's sports books, Boston is making picks that have generated significant line moves.

Both Boston and Crow are off to hot starts after the first two weeks of the contest, which carries a winner-take-all $50,000 prize. Boston went 4-2 against the spread this past weekend and Crow went 5-1.

Boston now has nine contest points (best bets count for 1 1/2 points) and Crow 8 1 /2 heading into tonight's third round at the Riviera sports book (8 p.m., KDWN 720-AM).

A couple of examples of the line moves in Boston's games: Arizona State went from plus-7 to plus-4 1/2 against Oregon State, and Western Kentucky went from a 12-point favorite to a 14-point favorite against Arkansas State.

If you think this week's round will generate a similar frenzy in the lines, there are several strategies you could employ. One involves standing just outside the Las Vegas sports book of your choice listening to the KDWN feed, then walking up to the counter and betting each of Boston's selections as he announces them.

Then, you could either let 'em ride or play back on the other side, shooting for a "middle," after the line moves a couple of points.

(Not that anybody I know would ever try to pull a stunt like that.)

Jeff Haney can be reached at 259-4041 or at haney@lasvegassun.com.