Columnist Jeff Haney: Talking shop with a Las Vegas sports book manager who says the NFL underdogs will draw the early betting money

Monday, Jan. 16, 2006 | 8:41 a.m.

Jeff Haney's sports betting column appears Monday, Friday (gaming) and Wednesday (poker). Reach him at (702) 259-4041 or haney@lasvegassun.com.

After pulling off the biggest upset of the weekend, the Pittsburgh Steelers opened as 3 1/2-point underdogs against the Denver Broncos for Sunday's AFC championship game.

As 10-point underdogs Sunday, the Steelers upended the Indianapolis Colts, who had been heavily favored to win the Super Bowl for most of the football season.

Although Pittsburgh will be on the road as an underdog again, Rich Baccellieri of the Palms sports book projected that the Steelers will likely attract a little more money than the Broncos at the betting windows.

"I think (the point spread) would go to 3 before it went up to 4," Baccellieri said. "But I think it's pretty solid at 3 1/2."

In Sunday's NFC title game, the Seattle Seahawks opened a 4-point favorite at the Palms against the Carolina Panthers, who advanced past the Chicago Bears.

Seattle opened as high as a 5 1/2-point favorite at other books, with early money from bettors backing the underdog.

"Carolina looks like they can hang with this team," Baccellieri said. "They've shown they can play well on the road (even though) I know the Bears' offense is anemic. It should be a good NFC final."

Panthers running back DeShaun Foster and defensive end Julius Peppers were considered questionable for the NFC title game after injuries forced them out of Sunday's game. Peppers hurt his shoulder in the fourth quarter and Foster injured his right ankle early in the second half.

Seattle running back Shaun Alexander, the league's MVP, sustained a concussion Saturday during the Seahawks' victory against the Washington Redskins but is expected to play against the Panthers.

"It looks like Alexander is leaning more toward probable," Baccellieri said.

On Saturday, the Broncos won and covered a 3-point spread, 27-13, after heavy wagering by the betting public on the Patriots in Las Vegas.

The money line on Denver -- meaning the odds to win the game outright, regardless of the point spread -- was minus-145 (risk $1.45 to win $1) to minus-150 at most Las Vegas shops, a bit cheaper than usual for a game with a 3-point spread.

"They were betting New England like the other team wasn't even going to show up," Baccellieri said.

Saturday's 20-10 victory by the Seahawks against the Redskins offered another example of the importance of finding the best "price," or number, before wagering.

If you bet either side in the game, you should not have lost. You should have either won or pushed.

Seattle was favored by 8 1/2 to 9 1/2 points leading to the game before the line was bet up to the eventual final margin of 10 -- a number that was readily available Friday night and Saturday in Las Vegas.

* * *

Sensing a possibly advantageous parlay, I tried to place a wager linking the Bears on the money line in Sunday's game against the Panthers to the "under" 49 points in the Super Bowl.

My thinking was that if the Bears did advance to the Super Bowl, the over/under on game day would have been substantially lower than 49 thanks to Chicago's strong defense -- and weak offense.

I thought the two events -- the Bears winning outright and the Super Bowl total being adjusted downward -- were correlated enough that I would have had the edge against the house in that two-leg parlay.

But the people in charge of taking bets in Las Vegas evidently agreed. My attempts to make this bet were denied. (The Bears went on to lose, anyway, so it's just as well.)

One sports book manager politely explained that he might be willing to take my action, but his computer system was not configured to accept such a wager.

A couple of other sports book employees kind of laughed at me. Just like they did when I tried to bet the NFC plus 9 or 9 1/2 points in the Super Bowl on Sunday while the Colts were in the process of losing to the Steelers.

Oh, well. I still maintain it was worth a shot.

If you were able to place these kinds of bets in Las Vegas, I'd like to hear about it. (If you got down with my-bookie-in-Belize-dot-com or something, I'd probably be a little less interested.)