Columnist Jeff Haney: Breaking out the calculator to maximize your earning potential on a correct Super Bowl pick

Monday, Jan. 9, 2006 | 7:31 a.m.

Jeff Haney's sports betting column appears Monday, Friday (gaming) and Wednesday (poker). Reach him at (702) 259-4041 or haney@lasvegassun.com.

After the weekend's NFL playoff games, sports books in Las Vegas will post updated odds today on each of the eight remaining teams to win the Super Bowl.

Before firing away into those lines, consider an alternate strategy: betting your team on the money line in each of its three remaining games (including the Super Bowl, Feb. 5 in Detroit), rolling over the profits as well as your original stake each week.

A money line wager is a bet on which team will win the game outright, regardless of the point spread, with the odds roughly corresponding to the team's chances of winning the game.

If your team goes on to win the Super Bowl, this strategy could result in a bigger payday than the odds on the board offer. If your team loses anywhere along the way, you're out the same amount of money you would have lost anyway.

Let's look at the Washington Redskins. When the updated odds are posted today, Washington will probably be about 15-1 (at best) in Las Vegas to win the Super Bowl. That means a $100 wager would return $1,500 plus the original stake for a total payout of $1,600.

How would that same $100 fare using a money-line parlay?

Washington is an underdog of 8 1/2 to 9 points for Saturday's game at Seattle. That translates into a money line of at least plus-290 on Washington (risk $1 to win $2.90).

If the Redskins get past Seattle, they'll probably meet the Chicago Bears in the conference championship game. I think the Bears would be favored by about 4 1/2 points in that matchup, but I'll be conservative and say the line will have Chicago favored by 3. That means you could get plus-135 on Washington on the money line.

That brings us to the Super Bowl, where Washington would be at least a 10-point underdog against the Indianapolis Colts, who are favored in the AFC. You could find about plus-300 on Washington on the money line.

Using those projected odds, a $100 money-line parlay on Washington would pay more than $3,600 if the Redskins win the Super Bowl -- better than 35-1, significantly higher odds than the (optimistic!) 15-1 at local sports books.

(Other) NFC teams

* Chicago Bears. Likely odds on board to win Super Bowl: 10-1.

Chicago is favored by about 3 points Saturday against Carolina, which translates into a money line of about minus-150. I'll project the Bears would be 7-point underdogs (plus-250) at Seattle and 10-point underdogs against the Colts (plus-300). That equates to a money-line parlay payout of more than $2,200 on a $100 stake, or odds of better than 21-1.

* Seattle Seahawks. Likely odds to win Super Bowl: 3 1/2-1.

Seattle is favored by 8 1/2 to 9 points against the Redskins (minus-380). I have the Seahawks 7-point favorites against the Bears (minus-330) and 10-point underdogs against the Colts (plus-300), for a likely money-line parlay payout of about $650, or better than 5 1/2-1.

* Carolina Panthers. Likely odds to win Super Bowl: 12-1.

Carolina is a 3-point underdog against the Bears (plus-130). I have the Panthers 7-point underdogs against the Seahawks (plus-250) and 10-point underdogs against the Colts (plus-300), for a likely payout of more than $3,100, or better than 30-1.

AFC teams

* Indianapolis Colts. Likely odds to win Super Bowl: minus-200.

The Colts are favored by 9 1/2 against the Steelers (minus-400). I have them as 7-point favorites against the Broncos (minus-300) and 10-point favorites against the NFC in the Super Bowl (minus-400), for a payout of $208, just a little more than even money.

* Denver Broncos. Likely odds to win Super Bowl: 4 1/2-1.

The Broncos are favored by 3 against the Patriots (minus-160). I have them as 7-point underdogs against the Colts (plus-250) and 7-point favorites against the NFC (minus-330), for a payout of about $640, nearly 5 1/2-1.

* New England Patriots. Likely odds to win Super Bowl: 6-1.

The Patriots are 3-point underdogs against the Broncos (plus-140). I'll say they'd be 7-point underdogs against the Colts (plus-250) and 7-point favorites against the NFC (minus-330), for a payout of nearly $1,000, or about 9-1.

* Pittsburgh Steelers. Likely odds to win Super Bowl: 7-1.

The Steelers are 9 1/2-point underdogs against the Colts (plus-300). I have them as 7-point underdogs at Denver (plus-250) and 7-point favorites against the NFC (minus-330), for a payout of more than $1,700, or about 16-1.