Columnist Jon Ralston: Predicting what’s in store for Nevada politics in the coming year

Wednesday, Jan. 4, 2006 | 7:31 a.m.

Jon Ralston hosts the news discussion program Face to Face with Jon Ralston on Las Vegas ONE and also publishes the daily e-mail newsletter RalstonFlash.com. His column for the Las Vegas Sun appears Sunday, Wednesday and Friday. Ralston can be reached at 870-7997 or through e-mail at ralston@vegas.com.

Before you put too much stock in the oracular gymnastics to come, consider:

Assembly Speaker Richard Perkins is not a lock to be the Democrats' gubernatorial nominee. Henderson Mayor Jim Gibson is in the race for governor. And state Sen. Dina Titus is not running for secretary of state. What's more, Mark Amodei is not attorney general and Brian Krolicki is not running for Congress.

Perkins' ascension, Gibson's refusal, Titus' withdrawal, Amodei's appointment and Krolicki's choice were all incorrectly foretold here a year ago. Infernal editors!

But before you mock your favorite pundit too much, recall I nearly nailed the property tax solution that passed, predicted two out of the three contenders for Gibbons' congressional seat, indicated state Sen. Bob Beers would run for governor and saw Assemblywoman Chris Giunchigliani seeking lower (?) office on the County Commission.

So, yes, the usual mixed bag in applying my Delphic powers. And this coming year finds the crystal ball hazier than ever with six open constitutional offices; a combustible national and local political atmosphere kindled by scandals; and the fading reliability of anointment politics as the number of gaming companies shrinks.

But soldier on I must to retain my membership in the prestigious Pundits Society of America, which puts a premium on pontification and ignores pesky criteria such as success rates and accuracy.

Democratic disaster? You may have noticed that there are no Democratic statewide officeholders save Sen. Harry Reid. You may have noticed that despite beseeching everyone with a name or sizable bank account, the Democrats have no candidate for Jon Porter's congressional seat or for lieutenant governor.

You may have noticed that Democratic women (where have you gone Frankie Sue Del Papa?) rarely win statewide races and that at least four of them are running for constitutional offices -- governor, attorney general, controller and treasurer.

There is a reason for the recent GOP domination, and it's not only because the Democrats have offered inferior candidates. This is a red state, and unless the D.C. atmosphere turns even more toxic for the GOP (and Nevada often has been immune from national trends), this will not change much in the foreseeable future.

John Kerry couldn't even hold the Democratic advantage in Clark County in '04, and the massive margins for GOP contenders in rural Nevada mean that if Republican contenders can hold the demographics in the North and South, they cannot lose.

Now, ask yourself: Is there a reason to believe the Democratic ticket will be so strong this year to reverse that trend?

Also, Reid is not on the ballot and without as much incentive, he will meddle but not be as committed.

The key for the Democratic candidates from governor on down in the constitutional office races may well be Democrats outside of the Southern stronghold -- there are 125,000 of them.

In a low turnout primary, especially, they could make the difference.

Despite the odds, the Republicans will not hold all of the constitutional offices. The crystal ball is cloudy, so I can't give specifics. But two Democrats will win constitutional offices.

Meet the new bosses, different than the old bosses? Not only will Barbara Buckley become the first female speaker of the Assembly, she will rule over a nearly veto-proof majority. She will have 27 caucus members. In the state Senate, the Republicans will maintain control, there will be rumblings that Bill Raggio will agree to give up one of the levers of his power -- majority leader or finance chair -- but he will not.

Naming names: Secretary of State Dean Heller will become a congressman. Giunchigliani will become a county commissioner, but no other incumbent commissioner will lose. Tax and Spending Control for Nevada and Prop 13 will pass. Sen. John Ensign and Porter will be easily re-elected, Krolicki will become lieutenant governor and Ross Miller will be elected secretary of state -- the crystal ball just cleared up on that one. Mayor Oscar Goodman, flirting with a U.S. Senate bid, will not be on the ballot.

And now for the big question: Who will be the state's next governor? The answer is coming through, but the crystal ball is getting hazy again. I can only see part of the answer, but here it is: Jim Gib....