Jon Ralston on what it will take for Reid’s protegee to run a close race against Porter

Friday, Feb. 24, 2006 | 7:23 a.m.

Sometimes in politics, the obvious is not so obvious.

Tessa Hafen is a perfect example. The story line here seems so apparent:

Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid, reacting to an inexplicable Jon Porter news release in January attacking him on Jack Abramoff money, pushes press secretary Hafen into the race against the GOP congressman. A sweet-faced 29-year-old lamb, she will be sacrificed on the altar of the senator's fit of pique. End of story.

Or is it? After working with Hafen for the last few years and even more so after having her on "Face to Face" on Thursday, I'm not sure the ending here is so obvious. I know what you are thinking: Like any journalist faced with the prospect of yet another season of ennui in Congressional District 3, all he wants is to see a race, so he will hype it for all it's worth. Once again, dear readers, the obvious is wrong.

Hafen's toughness, which came out during the program Thursday, indicates she may not have the same kind of glass jaw that either Dario Herrera or Tom Gallagher had as Porter knocked them out early in previous cycles and won in landslides. She also does not have ethical or carpetbagger liabilities, and if the worst Porter can say about her is she is too young, too callow and too Reid-like, she may surprise some folks.

Porter will have plenty of money and his campaign team, led by Mike Slanker, knows how to shred an opponent's credibility. So Hafen will need to have a lot of "ifs" come to fruition for what many see as a lark to turn into a serious challenge.

If the district, which is closely divided between Democrats and Republicans and where the president only won by 1 point, performs in her favor, she could surprise Porter come November.

If there is what Senate hopeful Jack Carter calls a "rising tide" of opposition to the D.C. Republicans, it may not float his candidacy but it could provide Hafen with enough buoyancy to pull off an upset.

If she can pierce Porter's facade of invulnerability, his almost preternatural ability to not say anything but look like the consummate bipartisan nice guy saying it, she has a chance.

On the program Thursday, she fired her first shot at the incumbent. Check out this exchange when I asked her what she thought Jan. 6 when Porter demanded Reid and Rep. Shelley Berkley return the Abramoff-tainted cash:

TH: "I was surprised. To my knowledge and since I have been working for Nevada in Washington, I have never seen anything like that. I think Mr. Porter has become something of a puppet for the Republican Party and was told to go after Sen. Reid and Congresswoman Berkley like that."

JR: "A puppet of the Republican Party? He's going to say you're a puppet of Harry Reid. How do you get out of that shadow?"

TH: "I'll show people that I'm my own person. I'm running for office because it's something I want to do. I have my mind made up on the issues I support, on the issues I don't support and why that is. People will see that in this election."

They have to for Hafen to have any chance. And yet, it is a final "if" involving her former boss and his involvement in her campaign that is the most critical factor for her:

If Reid actually follows through, as he has not done in the past and is unlikely to do with Carter, and raises Hafen the money she needs to be viable ($1 million would do it), she has a real chance. As the most powerful Democrat in Washington, he can single-handedly make her financially viable by urging people near and far to contribute.

If Reid doesn't do so, start turning the spit for yet another Democratic sacrifice in the district. But if the senator does come through, nothing about this race is obvious.

Jon Ralston hosts the news discussion program "Face to Face With Jon Ralston" on Las Vegas ONE and also publishes the daily e-mail newsletter "RalstonFlash.com." His column for the Las Vegas Sun appears Sunday, Wednesday and Friday. Ralston can be reached at 870-7997 or at ralston@vegas.com.