Jon Ralston on what it takes to overtake a head start in the Clark County Commission race

Wednesday, Feb. 22, 2006 | 7:14 a.m.

Polls taken in February often have little bearing on what will happen come Election Day. But even though they are only a snapshot, the pictures often are worth a thousand words - or at least the 600 or so in this column.

A survey taken a couple of weeks ago in the most important local race on the ballot indicates that Clark County Commissioner Myrna Williams is in robust shape against her Democratic primary challenger, Assemblywoman Chris Giunchigliani. And considering that the incumbent will have a huge fundraising edge - perhaps as much as 5-to-1 - Williams must be heartened by these numbers.

The poll, taken for local business interests by the nationally respected Glen Bolger, shows Williams with a 52 percent to 32 percent lead over Giunchigliani in the heavily Democratic district.

The survey of 296 likely primary voters, taken Feb. 6-8, has a margin of error of almost 6 percent.

So does this mean the race is all but over? Ah, if only campaigns, like sporting events, took place on paper, then Williams wouldn't have to worry about what will happen Aug. 15. But they don't - and there are many tangible and intangible factors to consider.

Giunchigliani, one of the hardest-working campaigners I have seen, already knew she had to outwalk, outwork and out-hustle the incumbent, who despite being a quarter-century or so older says she will cover the district. And Williams already is using her money to bludgeon Giunchigliani in the mail and with phone banks.

The name recognition and favorable/unfavorable numbers help explain why the Williams campaign is starting so early, even with this gigantic lead. Williams has reasonably high negatives among the faithful - 53 percent see her favorably, but 19 percent see her in a negative light. And the rest have no opinion, a fertile electorate for the challenger.

Giunchigliani only has 6 percent negatives and 30 percent positives, but that means 64 percent have no opinion about her. And that means the Williams campaign is following one of the oldest political saws there is - define your opponent before she can define herself.

One of the keys to Giunchigliani closing that 20-point gap is for her to charm folks at the door who are being inundated with negative messages about her in the mail, on the phone and on television. If anyone can do it, she can, but the poll shows just how much work she needs to do.

Giunchigliani obviously thinks she could benefit from the atmospherics in the valley vis-a-vis local governments, with a political corruption trial slated to start within weeks that focuses on how the county did business with strip mogul Mike Galardi. But Bolger found that - at least among Democratic primary voters in Williams' district - all disgust is local.

Sixty-three percent of those surveyed said they strongly or somewhat approve of the commission's performance with 31 percent saying they strongly or somewhat disapprove. Most politicians would love to have a 2-to-1 ratio, so that has to help Williams - at least right now, before the corruption trial starts and before the current commissioners misbehave, either mildly or seriously.

Conventional wisdom says it is very difficult to knock off an incumbent, especially a County Commission incumbent, and especially in a primary. But Williams did it when she won the seat from the venerable Thalia Dondero, who probably would have enjoyed a similar lead in the polls about this time 12 years ago.

The seat's importance is even greater than it was in 1994. Tom Collins is the only commissioner who seems to be supporting his former Assembly colleague Giunchigliani so far, which shows you that the majority want the status quo.

With a 20-point deficit to close and with a majority of the district seemingly fine with the status quo, Giunchigliani has less than six months to persuade voters that all is not so hunky-dory in the county.

Jon Ralston hosts the news discussion program "Face to Face With Jon Ralston" on Las Vegas ONE and also publishes the daily e-mail newsletter "RalstonFlash.com." His column for the Las Vegas Sun appears Sunday, Wednesday and Friday. Ralston can be reached at 870-7997 or at ralston@vegas.com.