Friday, Feb. 17, 2006 | 12:33 p.m.
In analyzing the field for Sunday's Daytona 500, odds-maker Micah Roberts was almost taken aback at how highly he had to rate the race's Chevrolet drivers compared with their competitors from other car manufacturers.
Drivers racing Ford or Dodge cars have won only a small handful of the past couple of dozen races in which restrictor plates are used, Roberts pointed out. The plates are used at Daytona and Talladega speedways.
"The main story is Chevy's dominance in these races," said Roberts, the sports book director at Sunset Station and a motorsports betting expert. "The question is, can they continue it?"
The high expectations for Chevy in the Daytona 500 are reflected in a proposition bet Roberts created for all Station properties. It pits Chevrolet against both Ford and Dodge to win NASCAR's season-opening race Sunday. Chevy is a heavy minus-300 favorite, meaning bettors are required to risk $3 for each $1 they're trying to win on Chevy. (Ford and Dodge combined are listed at odds of plus-220).
It's usually difficult to lay that kind of "juice," but it's even tougher to make a good case for a Ford or Dodge this year.
"It is a huge price," Roberts said. "Given how dominant Chevy has been in restrictor plate races, how do you pick a Ford here?"
Roberts' selection to win the race is Chevy driver Jimmie Johnson of the Hendrick Motorsports team. Johnson is listed as a 6-1 shot at Station properties, tied for the third choice on the betting board with Tony Stewart (also 6-1) behind co-favorites Dale Earnhardt Jr. and defending champ Jeff Gordon (each 9-2).
Roberts favors Johnson even though the driver will be missing his crew chief Chad Knaus, who was suspended for the Daytona 500 when Johnson's car failed a technical inspection after qualifying.
"Jimmie Johnson has been inching closer and closer the last three years (at Daytona)," Roberts said. "He's got a car that's capable, and he has a team that's very capable. He has the ability to take it upon himself to make the right moves down the stretch."
A victory in the Daytona 500 would lift the profile of Johnson - already one of racing's stars - to an even higher level, Roberts believes.
"If you look at it, you see his whole career has been set up to be the guy of the future for NASCAR," Roberts said. "I think he can do it."
Although Earnhardt Jr. had the fastest lap among all drivers in Wednesday's practice session at Daytona, Roberts doesn't think the short odds on him to win the race offer enough value.
The price on Earnhardt Jr. to win is so low because he's a fan favorite and routinely attracts a great deal of money at the windows from the betting public.
Earnhardt Jr. is not lacking in confidence heading into the race, as he recently said he thinks his is the "car to beat."
"I loved that he did that, but I think that was news to a lot of people," Roberts said. "The bettor is not getting a real good value on him. I think his car needs a little more. I'm definitely not sold on him as a value bet."
As a long shot, Roberts is taking a look at two-time Daytona 500 champ Sterling Marlin, who has joined MB2 Motorsports to drive the No. 14 Chevy. Even though that car is a new entry, its powerful engine comes from Hendrick Motorsports, Roberts said. Marlin is 28-1 at Stations but higher elsewhere, reflecting Roberts' conviction that he has a decent shot.
"If you can visualize your guy being right up there at the end, say the last five laps, when it becomes anybody's game, that's all you can ask for," Roberts said.
Gamblers who bet on the Arena Football League have been picking up the 2006 AFL workbook produced by Las Vegas-based RME Sports Investments, said Howard Schwartz, marketing director of the Gambler's Book Shop at 630 S. 11th St.
The workbook sells for $12 and contains space to track each team's opening and closing betting lines, the over/under, the final score and other figures. It also features 2005 stats and AFL betting trends.
"It's a good niche between seasons, now that football is over and baseball hasn't started," Schwartz said. "Betting on arena football is slowly catching on."
RME (online at rmesports.com) also produces workbooks for the NFL, college football and basketball, the NBA and the WNBA.
Jeff Haney can be reached at 259-4041 or at [email protected].
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