Jon Ralston breaks down the many ‘ifs’ that must occur for the Democrats to regain power in the state this year

By Jon Ralston (contact)

Friday, Feb. 3, 2006 | 12:30 p.m.

The top two Democratic contenders for statewide office are from Georgia and sound like it. The Democratic candidate for the next most important position (attorney general) is behind 4-to-1 in fundraising. The woman running for treasurer really wanted to be secretary of state but was shuffled out by the powers that anoint. And there is no Democratic candidate for lieutenant governor.

This would be funny were it not so pathetic. But it's early in the year so it's time to trot out the cliches about the election being an eternity away and the Democrats being the party of real folks and the national GOP slowly sinking in a morass of Iraq, spying and Abramoff.

But if you don't buy any of that, is there a way to paint a picture of a Carter-Titus ticket dominating the Republicans and leading the party back to statewide dominance after too long in the wilderness? Let me try.

With apologies to Henderson Mayor Jim Gibson, whose campaign is believed to exist, let's assume Senate Minority Leader Dina Titus wins the Democratic gubernatorial primary and Las Vegas Mayor Oscar Goodman does not challenge presidential son Jack Carter for the Democratic nomination against Sen. John Ensign.

So here are the questions Democrats need to answer:

Carter, who says he will not self-fund beyond $25,000 or so, believes he can raise money around the country and that his father will help him. He thinks that, unlike other Democratic contenders, he can use his small-town upbringing to make inroads with the small-town folks where Democrats traditionally have been shotgun fodder.

Can't get out of the political wilderness if you don't go into the real wilderness.

Carter is personable, smart and his best asset clearly is his wife, Elizabeth, who may prove to be the most dynamic campaign spouse here in some time. He plans not to run against Ensign - that's what they all say - and instead talk about the GOP's stewardship.

If he can get Dad to raise some money, if he can get national attention on the race because of his name and if the national GOP really goes into the tank, maybe. Carter needs all the "ifs," though, not just one.

So the conventional wisdom goes. But no one is working harder than Titus.

She lapped erstwhile contender Richard Perkins and forced him to the sidelines. And she is threatening to do the same to Gibson if he is not careful.

She has been relentless in every phase of the campaign and is invading, like fellow Georgian Carter, rural areas where Democrats are usually not welcome so they don't bother. And the dirty little secret about Washoe County is even some of the Republicans up there are more liberal than some of the Democrats are down here.

So if they can get over Titus calling them greedy rascals and financial bloodsuckers - I paraphrase - and if Rep. Jim Gibbons makes any gaffes, this may be some race come Aug. 15. Another minor "if" for the party.

Maybe the Democrats will find a diamond in the rough for lieutenant governor, maybe Kate Marshall will benefit from a vicious GOP primary for treasurer, maybe attorney general hopeful Catherine Cortez Masto can cause incendiary incumbent George Chanos to spontaneously combust and maybe Ross "It is me, it is me, I'm a governor's son" Miller will inject youthful dynamism into the ticket, along with fellow twentysomething Tessa Hafen, who is running against Rep. Jon Porter.

It could happen, especially if the Democratic Assembly corps would stop getting sidetracked by rock 'n' roll and fast cars on the way to a veto-proof majority in the lower house.

Of course, there is an easier blueprint to viability: Get Goodman into the U.S. Senate race, funnel a million bucks to Bob Beers so he can tear up Gibbons and pray the president proposes interim storage at Yucca Mountain. See, nothing to it.

Jon Ralston hosts the news discussion program "Face to Face With Jon Ralston" on Las Vegas ONE and also publishes the daily e-mail newsletter "RalstonFlash.com." His column for the Las Vegas Sun appears Sunday, Wednesday and Friday. Ralston can be reached at 870-7997 or at ralston@vegas.com.

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