Cheering on Tom

J. Patrick Coolican, Las Vegas Sun

Sunday, Dec. 3, 2006 | 7:41 a.m.

The results of the past four Iowa Democratic caucuses (eventual nominee in bold). If Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack makes a strong run, it could render the 2008 Iowa caucus a foregone conclusion, as in 1992 when Iowa Sen. Tom Harkin ran for president. If that happens, Nevada's 2008 caucus, which follows Iowa, becomes even more significant.

2004 - John Kerry (38%) defeated John Edwards (32%), Howard Dean (18%), Richard Gephardt (11%) and Dennis Kucinich (1%)

2000 - Al Gore (63%) defeated Bill Bradley (37%)

1996 - Bill Clinton (unopposed)

1992 - Tom Harkin (76%) defeated Paul Tsongas (4%), Bill Clinton (3%), Bob Kerrey (2%) and Jerry Brown (2%)

Wife: Christie; sons: Jess and Doug

Mayor of Mt. Pleasant, Iowa: 1987-92

Iowa state senator: 1992-98.

Elected governor of Iowa in 1998, first Democrat elected governor in 30 years. Served two terms.

Chairs the centrist Democratic Leadership Council, once chaired by former president Bill Clinton.

Of note: Orphaned at birth.

Vilsack! Vilsack! Vilsack!

Has a nice, martial ring to it, doesn't it?

For those uninitiated in Vilsackian mania, Vilsack is Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack, who announced last week he's running for president in 2008 as a Democrat and who today is in Las Vegas.

Outside of Iowa, his biggest base of support is probably Nevada.

Both Sun columnist Jon Ralston and liberal blogger Hugh Jackson have a new slogan: "Go Vilsack!"

Democratic consultant Dan Hart put it this way: "It's clear the Democratic establishment is 1,000 percent behind Tom Vilsack's quixotic campaign for president."

But not for the reason you might expect.

It's not his ethanol expertise, to be sure.

Nevada's political types hope that if Vilsack runs a strong race, the rest of the Democratic field will skip the first-in-the-nation Iowa caucus because he'll be expected to win so overwhelmingly. Call it the Harkin Scenario, after Iowa Sen. Tom Harkin, who ran for president in 1992; everyone skipped Iowa that year.

Nevada comes next after Iowa, so if Iowa isn't competitive, the Silver State becomes that much more important in the presidential race.

Iowans, always protective of their status as big players in deciding who will be the next president, say there won't be a Harkin Scenario in 2008. They expect a highly competitive caucus, and there's reason to believe they're right.

David Yepsen, the political columnist for The Des Moines Register who shows up on your TV screen every four years to comment on Iowa, points out that even if Vilsack runs a solid race, other candidates will want to gather momentum with a strong second-place showing. Top tier candidates, such as former senator John Edwards, Sen. Hillary Clinton, former vice-president Al Gore and Sen. Barack Obama, if they decide to run, could even score an upset over the favorite son, Vilsack.

"They'll be looking to exceed expectations," said Cary Covington, a University of Iowa political scientist who's a close observer of presidential politics. "You get a bounce wherever you can."

Yepsen also argues that the skip-Iowa strategy never works, citing Wesley Clark in 2004 and Sen. John McCain, who both skipped Iowa and both lost. "If you aren't in that mix coming out of here, you can't get back in the game. The ball starts rolling," he said.

Dave Damore, a UNLV political scientist, mocked the Iowans a bit: "Of course they say that. Because otherwise no one would pay attention to them. If Vilsack runs, it makes Iowa less important."

(Expect this political junky trash talking from now until the caucus.)

A final reason candidates likely won't skip Iowa is, well, Vilsack.

Most Americans have no idea who he is, and though he's raised $1 million in one shot at his past birthday fundraisers, he'll be no match for Edwards, Clinton, Gore and Obama, all of whom already have established networks of the biggest givers in the country.

Moreover, Vilsack is a moderate. He's chairman of the Democratic Leadership Council, a corporate-backed centrist group. Former president Bill Clinton is a past chairman as well.

For the most part, however, moderates do not win their party's nomination because the people most likely to participate in a caucus or primary are the most hardened partisans, who tend to be ideological rather than moderate.

Vilsack also lacks foreign policy experience, which, in a time of war, is likely a requirement of many voters.

Still, Vilsack offers a compelling life story, and those who know him say he can't be counted out, often citing the last two Democratic presidents, Clinton and Jimmy Carter, both governors of small states before being elected.

"The thing I would say about Tom Vilsack is this," said Rob Tully, outgoing chairman of the Iowa Democratic Party, "People should never underestimate Tom Vilsack. They underestimated him in a primary (in 1998), but he prevailed and became an incredibly popular governor." He's been a mayor, a state senator and served two terms as governor, and he's never lost an election.

Vilsack, who will turn 56 this month, was an orphan before being adopted by a couple in Pittsburgh. (Biographical details have been culled from the governor's Web site and national media reports. A Vilsack press aide arranged for a Saturday interview with the Sun, but Vilsack didn't call at the appointed time, and a call to the aide was not returned.)

His adoptive parents were troubled, but Vilsack made it to Hamilton College and then law school. He's married and has two sons.

A compelling personal narrative can often be an important part of a presidential campaign. Clinton, for instance, used to great effect this simple slogan that also told a story: "The Man from Hope."

David Redlawsk, a University of Iowa political scientist, said that as governor, Vilsack focused on two goals: economic development for Iowa, which has been hit hard by the changing farm economy and a manufacturing slump, and K-12 education - and specifically early childhood development.

It's not clear how successful Vilsack was in spurring economic development, Redlawsk said. Vilsack was successful, however, in raising teacher salaries, introducing early childhood development programs and making education reforms, Redlawsk said.

The success of the new programs and the reforms won't be known for some time.

To accomplish his goals, Vilsack had to work with Republicans, who control the Iowa General Assembly. Representative Danny Carroll, the Republican speaker pro tempore, described Vilsack as pragmatic and said he was able to work with him.

"If I had to help the Democrats choose a nominee, he'd be my first choice," he said.

The problem for Vilsack is that Democrats don't usually care for presidential candidates endorsed by Republicans.

Vilsack has shown some political savvy right off the bat, however. By being first in the race, he's getting valuable free media. And, by announcing during the post-election news lull, he's getting more media than he might have otherwise.

He also took a gutsy shot at McCain, who has called for more U.S. soldiers in Iraq. Vilsack pleased Democratic activists - the very people likely to vote in primaries and caucuses - by attacking the McCain idea. It would be wrong "to make a big mistake bigger," he said.

As for Nevadans, all they're saying is, "Keep it up Vilsack!"

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