Jeff Haney isn’t buying the hype from Maskaev’s manager

Friday, Aug. 11, 2006 | 7:50 a.m.

Dennis Rappaport, Oleg Maskaev's manager, calls his fighter a "Cinderella story."

Rappaport says that although an old management team mishandled Maskaev, he's now on the fast track toward a world heavyweight championship. Rappaport believes Maskaev will buck the odds and defeat Hasim Rahman to win the WBC title Saturday night at the Thomas & Mack Center.

I'm not Rappaport.

I'm playing the favorite in the fight and will lay minus-200 (risk $2 for each $1 you're trying to win) on Rahman to win and retain his belt.

Maskaev knocked Rahman out in their previous fight, but that was nearly seven years ago. And before Maskaev caught him with a devastating right hand, Rahman was winning the fight on points.

Saturday night, Rahman figures to enter the ring both highly motivated and in top physical condition. By Rahman's own admission, neither was true heading into the 1999 bout.

Maskaev has trained hard for the fight, but his record since beating Rahman is less than impressive. He sustained early round knockout losses to Kirk Johnson and Lance Whitaker and also was stopped by Corey Sanders. As Rahman's camp members have gone out of their way to point out, that wasn't similarly named Corrie Sanders, a more established heavyweight Rahman beat in 2000.

Rahman is 6-0-1 since 2004 against better opponents that Maskaev has fought, and he looked decent in the draw against James Toney in March. Plagued by inconsistency early in his career, Rahman has matured considerably in recent years.

Minus-200 is a short price given the talent disparity between the fighters.

In boxing betting, the bulk of the money typically shows up on fight weekend rather than in the days or weeks leading up to it, so odds are subject to change. Midweek, the best prices on Maskaev were at the Imperial Palace (plus-185) and the Venetian (plus-190). Minus-200 on Rahman was widely available around town.

Despite Rahman's contention that he'll finish off Maskaev with an early knockout, I'll have no play on the round proposition of over/under 9 1/2, with a heavy premium on the under in Las Vegas sports books.

In other props, according to Caesars Palace odds, Rahman by knockout is even money, Rahman by decision is 3-1, Maskaev by knockout is 14-5, Maskaev by decision is 9-2 and a draw is 18-1.

Teasers redux

As a couple of readers correctly pointed out following Monday's column on the best teaser prices in Las Vegas, there is a way a two-team, six-point football teaser can be salvaged even if one of the teams loses against the teased point spread: If the other team "pushes," or ties against the spread, the entire teaser is ruled a push and your money is refunded, according to standard Nevada rules.

Although this is a finer point of teaser wagering, it's significant enough that it could make the difference between a profitable betting venture and a long-term losing proposition. If you bet with someone outside of Nevada, insist that the rule is in place.

And for bettors who feel the need to mix in a three-team, seven-point NFL teaser, seek out sports books that pay 3-2, or plus-150, on that wager.

Be careful because some other joints pay as low as even money on three-team, seven-point teasers. Rather than betting into those odds, you'd be better off investing your bankroll in an extended session of Caveman Keno.

Also noted

The Imperial Palace sports book has a major league baseball prop in which bettors can wager on which team in each league will earn a wild-card berth. For the purposes of this wager, if the team wins the division outright, it's a loser. With odds likely to change by the minute, the Reds (11-5) were installed as the NL wild-card favorite, with the White Sox (9-5) and Red Sox (5-2) among the top choices in the AL.