Jeff Haney projects winners and losers in betting big league baseball futures

Friday, Aug. 4, 2006 | 7:23 a.m.

The Detroit Tigers, with their major league-best .673 winning percentage and 8 1/2-game lead in the AL Central heading into Thursday's games, have been garnering unanimous praise as baseball's most surprising story this season.

As is often the case in sports, to quantify just how much of a surprise they are, it pays to look at the betting odds.

Before the season, Las Vegas oddsmakers set the Tigers' season-win over/under at 76 1/2 victories.

Now, two-thirds of the way through the regular season, the Tigers are on a pace to finish with 109 victories.

The differential of more than 30 victories between the opening over/under line and the updated projected total is far and away the largest among major league teams.

Detroit's stunning success is also reflected in the team's odds in Las Vegas to win the World Series.

A reader who visited Las Vegas during spring training recently wrote that he put some money on the Tigers to win the World Series at odds of 45-1 at the Gold Coast during his trip here. He wondered if that was the best number out there or if he might have left some money on the table.

Well, considering you'd be lucky to find 5-1 on the Tigers now, that looks like a strong wager. When you consider Caesars Palace opened the Tigers at 150-1 just after last year's World Series, it looks relatively mediocre. (In fairness, that juicy 150-1 had been hammered down to 10-1 by May at Caesars and its related properties.)

Other major league teams that are on pace to exceed their preseason projected win totals by a comfortable amount include the Cincinnati Reds (over/under set at 74 1/2, projected total 83), the Florida Marlins (over/under 66 1/2, projected 76) and the Minnesota Twins (over/under set at 83 1/2, projected 93).

The most disappointing team using this method is the Cleveland Indians, whose preseason over/under was set at 90 1/2 victories by oddsmakers. With a 46-60 record (as well as a 25 1/2-game deficit in the AL Central standings), the Tribe is now projected to win only 70 games.

Other underachievers include the Atlanta Braves (over/under 87 1/2, projected 76), the Chicago Cubs (over/under 84 1/2, projected 67) and the Pittsburgh Pirates (over/under 75 1/2, projected 61).

In another proposition, Barry Bonds is on pace to finish with fewer than 34 1/2 home runs, which would make the "under" a winner on a wager available at the Plaza before the regular season. Bonds has 14 homers in 85 games played.

In a prop asking who will lead the majors in home runs, a couple of mid-range shots are leading the pack: David Ortiz (opening odds of 16-1 at the Palms) with 37 home runs and Ryan Howard (25-1) with 36. Two long shots are in striking range: Alfonso Soriano (60-1) with 34 homers and Carlos Beltran (65-1) with 33. Preseason favorite Alex Rodriguez (4-1) has 22 homers.

And befitting the Tigers' surprising run, Detroit righty Justin Verlander, who leads the majors with 14 wins, was not among the 48 pitchers listed by the Palms on its regular-season victories proposition. He was part of the field, or all others not listed, at odds of 13-2.

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