Las Vegas Sun

March 28, 2024

Jon Ralston clues the candidates in to what the people really care about

It's the education, stupid.

No, not the economy, as James Carville famously urged Bill Clinton, or the other "e" word that Nevada's gubernatorial candidates are spouting off about every day - ethics. Nevada voters care most about K-12 education, and the political hopefuls who meaningfully can tap into that issue, along with concerns about affordable health care, will do well come November.

That's the message of a recently completed poll by Peter D. Hart and Associates, which last month sampled a large number of voters (1,105) for the gaming industry to measure attitudes and candidate preferences.

Hart, a Democrat who also does polling for NBC News and The Wall Street Journal, also found that Nevadans, as opposed to most folks around the country, are optimistic about where the state is going, so all the negativism to come in campaign '06 may strike a dissonant chord. That is, if Mike Galardi and Erin Kenny would stop spinning sordid tales, pointing accusatory fingers and telling uncomfortable truths.

When presented with a series of eight issues and asked to choose the most important one or two, 42 percent selected "improving the quality of K through 12 public schools," which was easily the highest number. Only "making health care more affordable," which came in at 30 percent, was close.

So as state Sen. Dina Titus and Henderson Mayor Jim Gibson argue about who is more easily bought for campaign dollars, and Rep. Jim Gibbons and state Sen. Bob Beers snipe about whether the latter's April Fool's joke was funny or actionable, voters don't give a whit.

Make a bold statement about all-day kindergarten and give a specific way to fund it? That will make them pay attention.

Talk about ways to put more textbooks in schools and reduce class sizes? People will be volunteering.

Campaign for accountability combined with increased funding? Now you have their attention.

News flash: People already think most politicians are some shade of corrupt, so making it a contest to see who looks more sleazy is not just pathetic, it's the path of least resistance and not what people want to hear. I note that this does not suggest voters might ignore the attacks or not respond to them - it's just craven, albeit typical give-the-people-what-we-think-they-want behavior.

And during a week when Massachusetts found a way to find health insurance for nearly all, why aren't candidates talking more about innovations in that area, since Hart found that's what people who care want? And this includes not just average Joes who range from the working poor to the working almost-poor, but to small-business men who want to provide health insurance but can't afford to do so.

Not everyone has a Culinary Union plan, so what are the gubernatorial contenders going to do for everyone else?

Probably call each other crooks or argue about who hates taxes more. That's helpful.

Hart says Nevadans - by 50 percent to 29 percent - think the state is headed in the right direction, a sign, he says, that they are "very satisfied." But they are not happy with the president (58 percent disapproval rating) and are looking for someone to lead the state who can talk in sunny terms, not dark ones.

With Kenny Guinn leaving behind a robust economy, the opportunity to be bold has never been more clear. Instead of relying on vote-getting artificial mechanisms - Education First, Tax and Spending Control, Raise the Minimum Wage - how about an original thought or two when it comes to education or health care?

The political window is there, too. Hart found that Gibbons is running away with the GOP primary - he is ahead by 40 points - so the only way for Beers (or, in a longer shot, Lt. Gov. Lorraine Hunt) to gain traction is to come up with an idea whose time has come.

It may be too late for them, but Titus and Gibson have just begun to fight, unfortunately about Enron and Triple Five, which are irrelevancies to most people. Titus is ahead of Gibson by double digits in the primary but Gibson runs even with Gibbons in the general while Titus loses by eight, reinforcing the Democratic conundrum.

But, as Hart put it, "Gibbons is the prohibitive front-runner in the primary, but he is going to have a challenge whoever wins." So why not lay the foundation for the general now?

My guess is no matter what the polls say, most voters have yet to focus on the campaign season, thus keeping hope alive for all five contenders to carpe diem. So let's hope at least one takes a page from Carville's book and scrawls a different admonition on the wall in the campaign headquarters:

It's the education, stupid.

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