Waiting for Goodman

Dan Kulin

Monday, April 3, 2006 | 7:59 a.m.

If the candidate in question was anyone other than Las Vegas Mayor Oscar Goodman, you could say with relative certainty that his name is unlikely to be on the ballot for statewide office this year.

However, because it is Oscar Goodman who plays the game of politics like the rules are made to be broken Nevadans still are wondering about a possible Goodman bid for governor or the U.S. Senate.

With the filing deadline little more than one month away, Goodman is not talking or acting like a candidate. He has not built a campaign organization or raised money. He is not crisscrossing the state looking for audiences. And he seems more focused on the issues that define City Hall than shape campaigns for state or federal office.

However, lest one jump to a hasty conclusion from all of that, it is worth remembering that this is the same man who waited until the eleventh hour to launch his first mayoral campaign in 1999.

While other campaigns for this years top statewide posts have been up and running for months, Goodman continues his mayoral duties and insists he remains the happiest mayor in the world some days, its the universe whenever asked publicly about being on the ballot this year.

The closest he has come to tipping his hand is through the hints he sometimes drops, as when he recently expressed his preference for nonpartisan politics the brand found at City Hall, not in Carson City or Washington, D.C.

But by refusing to say whether he will run even though he says he has made up his mind Goodman has kept his name in the discussion of potential candidates.

If the mayor ultimately stays on the campaign sidelines this year, he may be missing out on a window of opportunity that may never be opened wider.

With term limits barring Gov. Kenny Guinn from seeking reelection, the governors race is a rare open-seat contest in which any nonincumbents chances are improved.

And while Sen. John Ensign currently has a comfortable lead in polls, he, like other Republicans nationwide, could encounter a voter backlash amid President Bushs dropping popularity.

Goodmans strong name identification and other factors would leave him well positioned for a possible primary battle against announced Democratic Senate candidate Jack Carter, son of former President Jimmy Carter.

If Goodman passes on this years Senate race, he effectively may be putting any senatorial aspirations on hold until 2012, when this years winner would face re-election.

There will be another U.S. Senate race in Nevada two years earlier, in 2010, but Goodmans fellow Democrat, Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid, is widely expected to seek re-election. And the mayor would be unlikely, many believe, to run against one of the most powerful members of his own party.

The reality is that statewide, there are not many seats and they are not open very often, said Pete Ernaut, a Republican strategist, an adviser to Ensign and a principal at the advertising and consulting firm R&R Partners.

Obviously Harry Reids seat is filled, and John Ensign is the favorite against anyone, and whoever wins the governors seat will be there for two terms, so there will be a logjam, Ernaut said, referring to the prospects for post-2006 Senate and governor races.

Kirsten Searer, spokeswoman for the Nevada State Democratic Party, said Bushs flagging popularity and Ensigns history of support for the president mean that if ever there is a chance to beat Ensign, it is now.

Another potential consideration for the 66-year-old Goodman is age. But he would not be the first politician to overcome that potential hurdle.

As long as you look healthy and look vibrant its not an issue, Ernaut said, noting that Ronald Reagan was elected president at 69.

But Jim Ferrence, who has been Goodmans campaign manager, said he expects the mayor will want to retire someday sooner rather than later.

Goodman, however, said he does not intend to retire when he leaves elective office, but rather will return to practicing law.

All of that simply keeps the guessing going about when that transition might occur and which office Goodman might vacate to return to the courtroom.

David Damore, an assistant professor of political science at UNLV, said he believes if Goodman was planning to run for governor or senator this year, he already would have launched his campaign.

I would be really surprised if he ran because these are races he cant necessarily win, and I think Goodmans smart enough to only want to enter into races he can win, Damore said.

Its tough to beat any incumbent, and Ensign is kind of the golden boy, Damore said.

In the governors race, a Goodman candidacy would bring a third strong contender into the primary and force him to play catch-up with the well-established campaigns of Henderson Mayor Jim Gibson and state Senate Minority Leader Dina Titus, who already are collecting endorsements and fattening their campaign treasuries.

Those factors, however, do not absolutely rule out a Goodman run for higher office in 2006, given the difficulty of applying conventional political wisdom to the mayor.

Goodman seems to remain as popular as ever despite several ethical missteps that probably would have sunk other politicians. His well-known gin comments to a class of fourth graders in which he said that the one thing he would want with him if stranded on a deserted island was some liquor seem to have provoked more of a Thats just Oscar reaction than to have dented his popularity.

And after winning his battle with the state Ethics Commission over lending his name and title to try to help his sons business with other mayors, Goodman said he would do the same thing again.

The mayor enjoys enormous popularity and would be a credible candidate in any race, said former governor and senator Richard Bryan. Bryan conceded, however, that it is getting late in the game in modern politics.

The formal candidate-filing period runs from May 1 to 12, but the potential opponents Goodman would face have been campaigning for months.

Bryan noted that there are precedents for successful late campaign launches. in 1982, Chic Hecht filed to run for the U.S. Senate on the final day and went on to defeat incumbent Howard Cannon.

Ferrence pointed out that in Goodmans first run for mayor seven years ago, his last-minute entry put him up against two solid candidates in former Clark County Commissioner Jay Bingham and then-City Councilman Arnie Adamsen. (Bingham later dropped out.)

Goodman does not buy into the thinking that he would need a lot of time to raise the necessary money for a viable statewide race, Ferrence said.

He thinks he could raise the money in short order, Ferrence said.

The recurring indications, however, suggest that Goodman has decided against running this year.

Goodman says he still is often contacted by sitting senators trying to recruit him with a pitch about how he could help tip the Senate majority back to the Democrats. His suitors, Goodman says, have included Massachusetts Sen. Ted Kennedy, New Yorks Charles Schumer and Barack Obama of Illinois.

But nothing sways me, Goodman said. I know what Im going to do. perhaps half-jokingly, Goodman says one of my idols is Long Beach, Calif., Mayor Beverly ONeill, who won a third term as a write-in candidate because the citys two-term limit prohibited her from being on the ballot.

Las Vegas term limits would allow Goodman to run for a third four-year term. Then, if he were to follow in oONeills footsteps, Goodman said he believes he could make a persuasive case for a fourth term.

But then 12 years is a long time to be anything, he said.

Does that mean hes planning on spending that long in the mayors office? Or that hes perhaps thinking beyond City Hall?

Only Goodman knows for certain. But the candidates warily eyeing his protracted will-he-or-wont-he act and the rest of Nevada will finally get an answer to that question sometime in the next 40 days.