Columnist Jon Ralston: Perkins’ exit alters dynamics

Friday, Sept. 23, 2005 | 6:21 a.m.

Jon Ralston hosts the news discussion program Face to Face on Las Vegas ONE and publishes the Ralston Report. He can be reached at (702) 870-7997 or at ralston@vegas.com.

WEEKEND EDITION

Sept. 24-25, 2005

Shortly before the 1995 Legislature commenced, Assembly Speaker Joe Dini tipped me to the committee and leadership assignments for the Democratic caucus. After going through the chairmanships, the venerable speaker told me he had a surprise name for Democratic floor leader: Richard Perkins.

I was shocked. I had barely heard of Perkins, who had been through one session and had less seniority than almost anyone in the Democratic caucus. Being the omniscient insider that I was, I said something intelligent to Dini like, "Who?" I don't remember Mr. Speaker's exact words. But he told me that I should watch Perkins and that I would eventually see what he saw. And, as I came to say so many times about Dini: He was right.

That memory comes back as I have reflected this week on the short, unhappy, almost-gubernatorial candidacy of Richard Perkins. In a relatively short time, Perkins succeeded Dini as speaker, consolidated legislative power as his mentor did by cultivating key power brokers and became a frontrunner to ascend to the governorship. But in an even briefer time span, Perkins went from anointed to disappointed, done in by a combination of self-inflicted wounds and missed opportunities.

His departure last week from a race that he never entered not only is a telling testament to potential unfulfilled but also dramatically changes the dynamic of a contest that seems destined to be as mercurial as any the state has seen. Let me try to sound slightly more knowledgeable than I did in that decade-old conversation with Joe Dini.

First, the Perkins backstory. During that 1995 session, with an unprecedented 21-21 tie, he shared floor leader duties with a Republican named Pete Ernaut. They worked together well and it was the beginning of a beautiful friendship. Later, Ernaut became Gov. Kenny Guinn's chief of staff and helped lay the groundwork, along with R&R Partners' Billy Vassiliadis, for Perkins' gubernatorial bid.

Perkins, the speaker, soon became seen as one of the Carson City boys, a word that when hissed with Titus' Southern accent sounds like an evil cabal.

But there was more to it than just knowing the right people. Perkins, though possessed with Harry Reid-like oratorical skills, had an engaging, effective style as a leader. Here was the tough, towering Henderson cop who also was soft-spoken and nonthreatening -- the gentle giant Dini had seen emerging.

Positively gubernatorial, it once seemed.

But, I think, Perkins (and his advisers) took too much for granted. He thought the powers that anoint would take care of everything -- after all, it had worked for Bob Miller and Guinn. He assumed, as did many, that Titus would wilt and decide not to run. He figured the session would end and everyone would coalesce behind him.

But a funny thing -- or things -- happened on the way to the mansion. First, Perkins did little to distinguish himself during the session and often appeared as a stolid stiff next to the gleefully glib Titus. And she did not wither; she thrived -- scoring political points for a property tax freeze, ginning up the media on Perkins' infirmities, creating a Web-based campaign.

And as she attracted attention, and became emboldened, he was playing too much inside baseball and not paying attention to the outside contest.

Not only was Perkins' name recognition about what it was when Dini first mentioned his name to me 10 years ago, but the speaker also created a rift with labor by incautiously agreeing to carry a neighborhood casinos bill pushed by non-union Station Casinos and then allowing it to snowball until it became a do-or-die deal for labor.

By the end of the session, one labor leader was whispering that the speaker's political career was over. Before that declaration proved prescient last week, Perkins had agonized over the decision, even going so far as to set an announcement date before meeting with his family and deciding it wasn't worth it.

So what happens now?

Even though Perkins used the cover story that he wanted to help the Democrats defeat frontrunner Jim Gibbons, the Republican congressman, they are not necessarily better off without him in the race. A two-way knife fight can be just as bloody as a three-way knife fight -- and whoever wins the Democratic primary could still be hemorrhaging going into a general election.

Titus would surely have been better off with Perkins in the contest, the beneficiary of two moderate, boring Mormon males canceling each other out in a Democratic primary. She still has the surest base, but will it be enough to beat Gibson, who will be seen by many in the Anybody But Gibbons caucus as a more formidable general election candidate?

Even though the ABG caucus seems to get bigger all the time -- Guinn, Chancellor Jim Rogers and now Vassiliadis, who last week openly pleaded with Rogers to let him run a third-party campaign against the congressman -- Gibbons remains a solid favorite. Yes, he has a primary, too. But neither state Sen. Bob Beers nor Lt. Gov. Lorraine Hunt will come close to raising the money Gibbons will, nor do either have his political base. And while there are other Democrats with either too much time (Mayor Oscar Goodman) or money (Diamond Resorts' Steve Cloobeck) on their hands who could make the primary even rougher, no other credible Republican is likely to get in.

These words are intended neither as a eulogy for Perkins, who may, like Reid did 30 years ago, be resurrected with the help of his friends, nor for the Democrats, who could be assisted by Rogers' Kill Gibbons PAC and the potential for the frontrunning Republican to falter. But if that's not quite a Democratic dirge I hear playing, Perkins' announcement last week can hardly be seen as sweet music for the party, either.